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Juniper Networks, Inc. Message Board

  • BRICKEIT BRICKEIT Jan 13, 2004 9:41 PM Flag

    REVERSE of 2001-2002

    melt up, shorts will have a very long year, earnings are excelerating not decreasing thereforestocks will go up and anyone trying to call the time at this point is an idiot.

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    • They will learn the hard way, just like the rest of us.

    • Here was my post homo. The 10% and 20% drops I was talking about can be seen in the numbers. I was not saying this will sell-off 10% in one day although I can guaranfuckingtee you that if they meet or beat by only a penny and maintain their guidance, you will see a 10% drop in one day and another 10 before anything takes it the other way. 19 by the end of this week may be a little optimistic on the short side.




      Does this mean anything? 10% haircut in one day and 2 months later down another 10%. 20% from 23.94 would put us back in the low 19 range which is exactly where this will be if they don't beat by a couple pennies and up guidance significantly.

      12-Mar-03 8.07 8.12 7.45 7.82 21,506,000 7.82
      .
      .
      .
      .
      17-Jan-03 8.89 8.95 8.46 8.50 23,670,900 8.50
      16-Jan-03 9.63 9.66 9.03 9.23 17,029,200 9.23
      15-Jan-03 9.68 9.77 9.43 9.69 10,405,700 9.69
      14-Jan-03 9.27 9.77 9.26 9.69 13,076,500 9.69

    • Hey Spanky....according to your post today U were refering to a 10 persent drop yesterday...that just simply never happened..then U went on to suggest a further drop to the 19 area which will NEVER happen. YA want me to take U to the emergency room,

    • In 1994, S&P earnings were up 20%, but the S&P 500 was down 2% for the year because of rising interest rates. Now I don't think that rates will rise like they did in 1994, but it is a mistake to think that after such a big runup in 2003 that stock prices HAVE to rise this year because earnings do. Also if the stock market discounts 6-9 months out, as it did in 2003, at some point in the next 2-3 months, we will have to start dealing with Q3 and Q4 earnings which will be much tougher comps.

      I have been trading JNPR for about 2 years, both long and short, but mostly on the long side. I was short until mid november, which I covered at a slight loss, then long until yesterday. I went short at 23 (a little too early unfortunately), but the stock has had a pretty incredible run. If the earnings news and guidance is good enough to justify this huge run up over the last 6 weeks AND to justify another leg up, then I just have to applaud the company and give up some of the gains I have made. But remember, it is pigs that get slaughtered. I was very happy to ride it from 17.30 to 23. That's enough for me.

    • Look at the action going into last q. Prior to earnings, it ran up from 15 to 18.90. They beat by a penny (AH Oct 9) and it got a 10% haircut over the next two weeks. Also notice it was up the day of earnings. However, JNPR reported before INTC last q. In case you forgot, Intc "blew away earnings" and the markets dumped 100 pts in 8 trading days.


      23-Oct-03 16.44 16.59 16.27 16.49 7,750,400 16.49
      22-Oct-03 16.90 16.93 16.64 16.76 5,051,300 16.76
      21-Oct-03 17.05 17.30 16.98 17.03 5,026,200 17.03
      20-Oct-03 17.19 17.30 16.93 17.00 4,296,300 17.00
      17-Oct-03 17.46 17.50 16.96 17.09 6,302,000 17.09
      16-Oct-03 16.96 17.44 16.87 17.41 7,152,400 17.41
      15-Oct-03 17.97 17.99 17.05 17.09 12,701,100 17.09
      14-Oct-03 17.60 17.95 17.50 17.78 10,916,400 17.78
      13-Oct-03 17.80 17.85 17.43 17.60 10,421,800 17.60
      10-Oct-03 18.85 18.90 17.51 17.62 38,745,600 17.62
      9-Oct-03 18.40 18.90 18.12 18.40 18,921,700 18.40
      8-Oct-03 18.11 18.41 17.79 17.95 13,722,800 17.95
      7-Oct-03 17.18 18.20 17.05 18.04 17,376,800 18.04
      6-Oct-03 16.91 17.33 16.80 17.29 9,615,600 17.29
      3-Oct-03 15.85 16.94 15.81 16.63 19,404,800 16.63
      2-Oct-03 15.29 15.42 15.12 15.24 6,622,900 15.24
      1-Oct-03 15.07 15.43 15.01 15.17 7,847,900 15.17
      30-Sep-03 15.24 15.39 14.91 15.00 7,235,100 15.00

 
JNPR
22.63-0.16(-0.70%)Sep 19 4:03 PMEDT

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