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Juniper Networks, Inc. Message Board

  • rufus_jones_the_3rd rufus_jones_the_3rd Mar 23, 2004 8:02 AM Flag

    I covered @ $ 23.28 & almost went

    long. I feel like JNPR is like dynamite in that the swings are violent. Still, a good stock that is overpriced. The chart is such that I do not think it likely to get much above $ 26. Looking to short again. Good Luck All.

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    • I cover my short position to be safe and felt the stock may have technical reboucd here. Even though the overall market fundamentals haven't changed, I had enough profit for this trade. I may try to squeeze more to my original target around $22 but felt I might lose more if there's a short squeeze. I have learned that the best time to cover short is when everyone is panic selling.

      Just like I covered a small portion of my shorts two weeks ago (3/11/04) near the close and the next day, I felt the stock didn't get wide support from the big institutions (decreasing volume). So I decided to short slightly larger amount of shares than I covered on previous day. It then had technical rebound with weak follow up and eventually started to decline due to the investors' fear of more violence in the Middle-East on Monday.

      Besides, stock cannot stay down for too long and JNPR needs more support from big institution supports to step in and buy to justify higher price. If I don't see the big institution supports to accumulate these shares that came out in next few weeks, I am not going to be in Long. That's my view why I think there might still possibility of downside.

    • Question Zen

      Since you covered your short already,how do you disconnect your thoughts about the stock possibly seeing more down side as opposed to your more long friendly synopsis as of late?

      In other words,

      by covering your short position, are you impying the stock will go up from here because you covered, or you covered to be safe but still think the stock can see more downside?

      I'm wondering how people's perception of a stock is haphazardly compromised once they covered already but there is more down side but now they can't see it based on their decisions to cover. Follow me?

    • Currently, the most negative side of the market is rising gasoline price will have strong impact on CPI in next month's figure. Gold price is rising and gold has always been the inflation hedge besides Real Estate. Until OPEC cartels are agree not to reduce the output in April, that will send the Oil Futures collapse to boost investors' confidence to be back in Tech stocks again. I am starting to feel that might be the direction because the gasoline price at the pump has started to rollback slightly last week.

      http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/ft-com/interactivecharting.asp?pageNum=&com
      pany=NEW&industry=®ion=&extelID=&isin=&ftep=&sedol=48203R10&FTSite=FTCOM&symb
      =JNPR&countrycode=us&t=e&s2=us&q=JNPR&osymb=JNPR&ocountrycode=us&expanded=true&s
      ubtab=1&colMode=&time=3yr&freq=1wk&chartsize=4&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&indName=aaaaa%7
      E0&ma=5&maval=20&type=4&comp1=&comp2=&comp3=&uf=8&lf=268435456&lf2=2&lf3=32


      Weekly volume has contracted and positive slow Stochastic is bullish for the JNPR, but decreasing RSI is bearish. In order to play JNPR long, I need to see expanding weekly volume with RSI turn around to move high again. If it doesn't turn up by next week or two, I am seeing JNPR will resume downward motion. Just have to see the next few days overall development.

    • So I might have been right in my long position if I held longer instead of stopping out. It's a tough game.

    • Thanks Foul.

      Your chart looks exactly like the weekly/3years chart to show the intermediate trend of JNPR. The pivotal point is $22 and if it breaks below $22, JNPR is going to spiral down. Besides, $22 is also the bottom of the downward channel and very likely to find support there. I am not sure about how much bad news JNPR can take to push the stock lower. I was surprised to see JNPR bounced back quickly with larger volume in the last hour of yesterday's trading. In a bad news down day, JNPR shouldn't recover with larger volume. I am not sure that was just short covering or not. I didn't feel comfortable with that rebound and decided to cover all my shorts.

      If JNPR trade up tomorrow and hold up above $24.25, JNPR is regaining strength (for short term day-trading strategy) and it's in the long's hand again. Today's action actually slightly bullish for JNPR with average volume without much commitment to up or down.

      Best Regards,

      Zen

    • "I'll just sit this out for now.I'd rather pay a premium on jnpr when it's in a uptrend that try and get in cheap but watch it get cheaper."

      I will join you Lucky. I don't feel like shorting again at this price doesn't make good risk/reward ratio but I sure don't want to go long right now. William O'Neil of IBD said, "buy high and sell higher" and it make sense.

    • I hear you

    • I picked up some YHOO April 45 puts last week. No one is saying anything about MSFT launching their own search engine in July.

    • Yeah

      I believe that. I forgot how this stock breaks your heart and wallet if you trade the wrong side.

      I'll just sit this out for now. I'd rather pay a premium on jnpr when it's in a uptrend that try and get in cheap but watch it get cheaper.

    • Good move on covering, you made some cash. But I wouldn't go long on this stock. Too many technicals violated by the Naz and JNPR. The Naz is headed to 1850 soon.

      • 2 Replies to acydeuce
      • In the short term it was a good move to cover yesterday, but you will wish you stayed short by the end of the week.

        JNPR will be lucky if it even holds $24 today. Im expecting the stock to close unchanged to slightly up and the selling to resume later in the week.

        DOW under 10000 is inevitable. Dont fight it.

        Be patient if you wanna go long. Plenty of selling ahead still. Today is just a technical bounce.

        With JNPR trading at 13.24 P/S, and 242 trailing P/E and almost 50 forward P/E, its wise to be patient here.

        Stocks that trade above 10 P/S always correct eventually.

        Be patient, its too early to be a buyer. I plan on goin long in a few weeks once earnings season picks up.

      • You really think the nas is headed for 1850?

        Can you elaborate?

 
JNPR
19.00-1.32(-6.50%)Oct 24 4:01 PMEDT

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