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Philip Morris International, Inc. Message Board

  • klongterm klongterm Oct 8, 2008 9:58 AM Flag

    What is wrong here - why cant PM

     

    go higher.

    This topic is deleted.
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    • PM is a buy....a strong buy if your time horizon is more than 3 years. The fundamentals of this company and their industry are strong and that cant be said for much these days. I agree with the post referring to cash flow, PE, EPS, etc. All are attractive. The really value is the dividend yield. Do not buy this into a retirement account because you will lose the tax benefits of the dividend. It is yielding almost 5% now which is a very good return as you wait for the stock price to return to normal levels. I would introduce new money to PM but do it slowly thru the earnings announcement. I anticipate an announcement of reduced earnings given the economic conditions and hit to the premium brands PM sells. People will start to smoke the generics for a time being. The price should take a further hit unless they surprise and have no forward looking statements. Dont get excited about the actual earnings number. It will be okay. It is the forwarded looking statements that we care about. Look for any language about litigation. It has been quiet and no one really expects anything like MO experienced here in the USA but one never really knows. Anything is possible these days. If there are hints about litigation fear will take over this stock and it should. It wil take years to recover from litigation threats. I dont think litigation will come into play at this earnings announcement. Lastly dont be too concerned about the rising value of the dollar. I remember when the dollar was crashing the positive impact on PM was not enough to impact the share price more than $0.50 to $1. Now with the dollar getting stronger we may give up that $1 but that is immaterial given the entry levels.

      If part of your justification for getting into PM did not include the dividend this is not the stock for you. You are a gambler and not making educated investing decisions. You probably should get out since it may take us awhile to stabalize at or above $50/shr.

      I would really like to see a 3 handle on PM after the earnings announcement. That would make this a very very easy buy.

      • 1 Reply to penguinguy1968
      • We both agree that PM is a buy but I disagree with much of what you wrote.

        >>>PM is a buy....a strong buy if your time horizon is more than 3 years. The fundamentals of this company and their industry are strong and that cant be said for much these days. I agree with the post referring to cash flow, PE, EPS, etc. All are attractive. The really value is the dividend yield.

        ***Agree.


        Do not buy this into a retirement account because you will lose the tax benefits of the dividend.

        ***Huh? A retirement account, like a IRA, is a great place for high-dividend stocks, because of the tax benefits.



        >>>The price should take a further hit unless they surprise and have no forward looking statements.

        ***Why take a further hit? Stock is down 20% is just the past week.



        >>>Look for any language about litigation. It has been quiet and no one really expects anything like MO experienced here in the USA but one never really knows. Anything is possible these days. If there are hints about litigation fear will take over this stock and it should. It wil take years to recover from litigation threats. I dont think litigation will come into play at this earnings announcement.

        ***It will take years?? First, you say nothing about what degree of litigation, if any something of substance really does exist, and second the old MO didn't take years to recover even during the worst of times re litigation threats. Fundamentals carried it higher.


        >>>Lastly dont be too concerned about the rising value of the dollar. I remember when the dollar was crashing the positive impact on PM was not enough to impact the share price more than $0.50 to $1. Now with the dollar getting stronger we may give up that $1 but that is immaterial given the entry levels.

        ***Are you talking about share price or earnings per share? This comment is confusing because some here have already suggested that the strong dollar is, in part, responsible for the stock's recent decline, in addition to market conditions. If you are talking EPS, then $1 is huge.

    • I'm trying to take solace in the fact that my dividends are going to be re-invested at a pretty nice price (I hope).

    • You've been watching too much CNN. Look at the fundamentals - PE ratio, dividend, buy back program, cash flow. I believe long term investors will do well......I've owned MO since 1994. No worries long term. It's impossible to predict short term moves.

    • The volume is telling the story...large fund appears to be liquidating, use it to your advantage:)

 
PM
86.03-0.26(-0.30%)Jul 9 4:02 PMEDT

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