I've stated before U.S. monetary policy has generally been restrictive throughout the 2000s, given U.S. actual output has generally been below U.S. potential output, in part, because export-led economies absorbed dollars. Also, U.S. fiscal policy was contractionary recently, because large increases in tax revenues shrunk the U.S. budget deficit to $160 billion last year (or roughly 1% of GDP).
The Fed began an easing cycle with an initial 50 basis point cut in the Discount Rate in August and a 50 basis point cut in the Fed Funds Rate in September. The Fed has lowered the Fed Funds Rate from 5.25% to 4.25% within three months in late 2007. It's likely, the Fed will continue to ease and there may be a one-time tax cut in the first half of 2008.
It turns out, the Fed began easing the money supply too late. However, the Fed began easing when U.S. real GDP was above 4% and inflation was elevated (i.e. slightly above 2%). It seemed, the Fed expected fewer dollars to be absorbed by export-led economies, which would stimulate the U.S. economy, while commodity prices, e.g. oil, food, copper, etc. continued to soar in late 2007, which worked against the Fed.
In 2008, commodity prices, which rose 18% in 2007, may be flat or fall, while both U.S. monetary and fiscal policies, along with foreigners absorbing fewer dollars, should be stimulative, to give U.S. GDP a boost. However, domestic prices may continue to rise faster than overall prices, while the weaker dollar raises import prices. Nonetheless, U.S. productivity may offset much inflationary pressure, while real wages, or compensation, rises faster than profits, debt is paid-down, and saving is built-up over the next few years.
Posted by: Arthur Eckart | Sunday, January 13, 2008 at 05:37 AM
It’s the place where you’ll find traders that win on 99% of their trades. You have to be smart, rich, good looking, and always beat the markets to be a member or trade there.
There are no strategies that don’t work there and they have a special “look back” feature if you run a stock market related blog. I follow a couple of hysterical blogs sometimes during the day. The two guys that run them both trade 2 and 3 lots of options or a couple hundred shares of stock. They never or almost never lose because they don’t post their trades until after the stocks move (that’s the look back feature).
They never ever post prices or exact strikes they trade either because it’s too easy to check time and sales. When I am bored I like to bust their balls with comments on their blogs about the post move trades. Both of them have ego’s that approach the size of Montana.
It all started with my all time favorite yahoo figure Arthur Eckart who goes by the yahoo name aaeckart. He’s truly a delusional character that plays trader of a multi million dollar portfolio. I’ve seen his posts from time to time here as well. He runs a site called peaktrader.com where he claims to post his trades in real time.
The volumes of his trades regularly exceed the volumes of those series in the real markets. He also, for more then a year posted that he made trades on expiration Friday in front month SPX options, which we all know expire on the opening. It was shocking to him when I broke the news to him they don’t trade on Friday expiration day.
The all time classic was when he posted trades on good Friday until he figured out the markets were closed. Anyway that’s basically what the FANTEX is, you can do anything there, trade anything, add all the strikes you like and the LEAPS go out to 2012 if you like. If you’ve ever ventured into a yahoo stock market chat room you’ll meet the membership.