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  • valueintime valueintime Mar 2, 2012 2:55 PM Flag

    KBH value ramping up

    The slow but sure turn around in single family development is also apparent to the market. KBH stock was a buying opportunity, hence the current price today. KBH as well as other Home Builders are experiencing more buying interest as compared to the last 3 to 4 years. As a Civil Engineer and as a professional who works directly with Home Builders/ Developers, I am seeing more developers coming back in and snapping up improved lots for pennys on the dollar. Banks are beginning to loosen up. The market is anticipating a turn around and therefore we are starting to see the "smart money" taking positions in still weak home builder stocks. Florida: new construction is picking up momentum. Illinois: Avante Developers just picked up 4000 lots for pennys on the dollar. The list goes on. This activity has not be seen for almost 4 years. People with money want new homes, it has been apparent home buyers are not exclusively looking for short sales, foreclosures etc. Those short sales are finally starting to dry up. I am not buying the conjecture that the rise in home building stocks is due to short squeezing. That does not make sense. How is shorting viable Companies at 4 or 6 dollars a share make sense? Shorting at a Company's 52 week low or very near it? Maybe fools are. It has been cavalierly mentioned on this Board as a fact that short squeezing is the reason for the appreciation in KBH's stock price. 6 to 7 million in volume in KBH is mostly due to shorts? It's obvious why you take up so much time protesting the current KBH value so continuously on this Board. Your short not working out? I don't think you have any influence on the market of KBH.

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    • I am now a part time real estate ... got licensed 4 months ago. My wife is now a full time r.e. agent. Inventory is the big problem ALL over the valley. Prices have been trending up for some time here but I'm expecting a big spike by July. Starting to feel better about my home purchase in Summer 09. By the way our house has 3kw solar and our power bill last 3 months months has averaged only 20 smackolas.

    • BTW...a 7 year high in national foot traffic at the doors of real estate agents at least deserves a new high in stock prices (as in Lennar). Lennar and HD are at multi-year highs.

      Dantsv - you are from Phoenix, AZ, one of the hottest markets in the US right now. Look on page 21. Buyer traffic index improved from 53 in January to 74 in February. That's huge - almost a 40% increase in a single month. Anything above 50 is growth. 50 means "as expected". In San Francisco Bay Area there's starting to be multiple offers on properties.

    • Here it is:

      h...t...t...p..://w..w..w...scribd.com/doc/84734806/Credit-Suisse-Monthly-Survey-of-Real-Estate-Agent-February-2012

    • No current short position in KBH. I disagree that short sales are drying up. Accurate numbers for the phantom inventory are hard to come by, so it is a virtual unknown. KBH stock is drifting; recent day charts do not look good at all. Yesterday's volume: less than 3 million shares. The bulls would view this as consolidation. I obviously don't. I'm not saying your analysis might not bear fruit. But you appear to be in the industry, and therefore there is some bias to your view. As I have already stated, the earnings report on March 14 should indicate whether this is the real McCoy. But thanks for giving an in depth perspective. There's just so much three word fluff on the message boards.

      • 1 Reply to odonnellm66
      • Thanks for your opinion. Having a bias does not help me so I stay level headed and avoid wishful thinking. I was at one time but that changed after the housing downturn persisted. As a result of my work and inquiries with folks in the industry, I received a linked-in response today from a Division President with Lennar. His response has been consistent with other Developers I have been in touch with. As follows; "There are apparent signs of life out there and sales have picked up." The point is- a corner has turned for the better in home building. I believe that is what the smart money is hearing and investing in as well. If I am aware of the new construction turn to the north, the "Street" surely knows. The price action reflects this and the shorts are bailing out. Therefore, I can not share in your pessimisum. I am also well aware that a housing boom is not on the immediate horizon.

 
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