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  • mrmom5050 mrmom5050 Nov 23, 2012 9:53 AM Flag

    Holding pattern

    Feels as though we may have almost bottomed from recent highs and may be setting up the next big move up. As far as me,sold half my position at $16.16 and the other half at $15.54. Have traded it a couple times since for small gains. Was hoping for one more pullback to go long but don't know if it's going to happen. Missed the opportunity when we dropped to almost $13. Today or Monday I jump back in. This is just the beginning of a long cycle. All data I have read says housing is back and gaining mo mo. And where we build it's gangbusters. Have a good weekend all!!

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • I'm not selling til it hits the $20s. The longer it's lower, the more I can add each month. This is the largest builder by volume in the largest state by population in the most geographically-constrained location with the largest increase in ASPs in their selected areas. Do the math. The fundamentals are ez to understand. Who cares what the negative nabobs on this site say or what the traders do. HB stocks sleep in the winter. Didn't you know that? Even parabolas take a break occasionally.

      In the last month there was a 25% to 36%-off sale in BRP, KBH, and NSM (KB's mortgage broker); plus my Brazilian homebuilder - Gafisa (GFA) too. Once the news is flush with "It's all over" for the builders, and time to move on", the pixies will awake from their slumber and come roaring into the Spring selling season. Yes, the stocks are sleeping now - but construction crews are feverishly building homes and taking out permits. In just the last two months there's been a 25% year over year increase in starts and permits, precisely at the time when the stocks have been down. Growing into their valuations?

      In a bull market, during a consolidation, the leaders pull back dramatically: and then, in just a few days come roaring back and hit new 52-week highs. I wouldn't touch those HB stocks at 7 year highs. I invest in the ones that are going to play catch-up.

      • 1 Reply to abcs.learning
      • Well said. Of the 368,000 new homes sold 287,000 are in those areas we service. The lower total number is seasonality driven,period. The number of negative views on housing continues to increase and as such has me fully invested once again. Even the housing bull of bulls, Dr. Drew ,lol, has turned. A sure buy signal. The small amount of trading I have done along with the lower price has afforded me the ability to increase my share count. Who really knows for sure why we ended up today but the nice increases in the south and west may have played a roll. Two major events are about to come to past, KB earnings report and the end to the Fiscal Cliff #$%$. As such I will not be attempting any trades from here on.

    • Be Careful, it's not a Holding Pattern - It's a Distribution Pattern.

      Sentiment: Sell

    • careful that base you're seeing isn't a top. in that case, thias has a LONG WAY to fall

    • Housing has stabilized and has recovered from its historic low. The spring selling season will be the tell if this is sustainable. Lets hope this long housing nightmare is finally coming to an end.

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 1 Reply to biddermon_ca
      • you guys do realize that the average home price/annual household income is still 5:1 in many parts of the country? the historical average is less than half that. not to mention, property taxes, insurance costs, maintenance costs have never been higher. you really think this recovery has legs? and why would that be a good thing? why should current and future generations of homebuyers pay up for a generation of #$%$ that thought prices would go up forever? it's time to get back to capitalism, whether we like it or not

 
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