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ICICI Bank Ltd. Message Board

  • mysticpaste mysticpaste Mar 11, 2009 7:15 AM Flag

    Does anyone really believe that the Home prices in India have bottom ...No way

    I firmly believe that we have not seen the worst yet in India. From what I hear from the different websites it is just starting to turn negative. IT sector is going to go slow on hiring that will bring the realty sector to a grinding halt. Bye bye huge prices. We are going to see prices come down for the common man which is good thing. Also all the speculators will be burnt.

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    • india real estate prices have to crash by 200%

      1.5 trillion fake currency

      dirty oldy crooks rule india

      India land mafia scammed all...........

      Swiss banks should disclose all dirty money parked their?

      Biggest slum dog nation and why?

      loot stibks in Swiss banks

    • Yes there was some slow down in housing prices - nothing substantial and nothing that could last very long. The fact that they are nearly 10 times as densely populated as us, real estate is very hard to come by. In Many big cities, the prices were nearly doubling every 3 years. It slowed down this year but it has not reversed at all. The prices are still moving up.
      Oh ya, about the IT sector jobs, they have cut down on their hirings significantly. but we can not forget that they hired over 150,000 last year (colleges were not able to meet the demand). A slowing down will give this sector some time to consolidate.

      I read that the the PM made an statement to the fact that India will be the least impacted country by the current downturn (That was two weeks ago, but I can not find the details of his reasoning anywhere on the web - please help me find it because it is very hard for me to believe.)

      They are still planning on growing by 5% for the year (although February was actually a contraction) - again I can not find any detail notes on why do they expect that 2009 will be very different from the February.

      As far as IBN is concerned, I do not see any housing problem hitting it. Their exposure to the Russian banks may be more of my concern.

      • 1 Reply to atruelybadinvestor
      • I too agree with you on IBN. But regarding what the PM said or the FM said they will keep on saying that. If you remember the FM has been saying the same thing for quite sometime and actually every month the GDp has been coming down. They have to talk pessimistically otherwise the country will go down the drain. As for the prices it has corrected drastically and there are many instances of zombie buildings. In Bangalore they are cancelling projects, there are a lot of builders who are paying interest nad atleast 60 percent of their ready to occupy builings are not yet sold. In Chennai too its the same. In Kochi also. The builders are just giving pep talks just like the FM to lure customers. My take is they should be punished for being greedy and taking the value of these buildings away from the grasp of the common man. This bubble is not like anyother time. This is a real bubble and if you own an apartment currently you will be better off to sell even at a 25% loss. see my calculation.
        Cost price = 1000000
        Interest = 80000 per year
        Selling price = 80000 which can be taken to the bank and that will earn the Cost price in 2.3 years.
        But if you keep it for 2 years and say your Selling price is
        1000000. then you actually have lost 160000 in Interest.
        But if your Selling price is below the Cost price then you will be losing 40%.
        just my analysis.

    • This means You know nothing about India.

      Yes the hype in Metro realestate is already bust, but Other than that there is no recession in Real estate.

      India with 3 times US population and 1/3rd space (ration of 9 in terms of sq ft per person). People dont have enough space to live in luxury although they have money. Real estate is gold in India and it just donot go down except the hyped up markets.

      There is just lot of people and that too are growing. They are flowing to every country out there and just they travelling back home helps the travel/tourism and realestate there. There is no recession in population!

      IBN is the best investment anybody can make these days. IT's cheap, grab with both hands.

      • 1 Reply to suryoday2001
      • I was not commenting on the share price of IBN. Even to me it looks like dirt cheap. One look at the chart will say that. I think the share price of IBN is related to all round mess and not reflecting the realities. But saying so I will not put my money in IBN for a few more weeks till I see it reaching back to 15. I would rather ride from 15 to 22 than 11 to 22. But thats just me.
        Regading the real estate is gold in India. i think you need to shed that concept. That was in the olden days when the prices used to climb steadily. Now there is a disproportianate rise between the realty prices and the income levels. Much more than what happened in the US. In the US the rise was just 100-125% in home values in 5 years. In India look at the prices that went up in the same 5 years. 300%-600% and even more in some cases. This was caused in part by real income rises due to IT incomes and high paying jobs. But the 70% people in India are still earning less than $100 per month. 15% make between $100-$500 per month. The genuine buyers have all bought or will buy but most of the people are speculators. But that is true in all markets when people see their neighbors making money they also follow as a herd, then comes the pulling the rug under the feet and bite the dust.

    • and why do you think is IBN off High of more than 80 percent??

 
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