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ICICI Bank Ltd. Message Board

  • mysticpaste mysticpaste Nov 1, 2010 10:31 AM Flag

    Hope the Indian governement pops this Bubble, otherwise it will lead to

    a crash in the market. There is pure speculation in the market with money coming from foreign funds. This stock was at $11 a year ago what changed from then to today to be up 500% at $55....

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    • From $55 to $43 looks like someone heard me.

    • Rupee seems to so overvalued.. Most of the things (except labor) are cheaper in US compared to India on a direct conversion basis (forget purchasing power parity).

      Effect of 10 to 15 % inflation in recent years hasn't yet reflected in the value of Rupee.. It will happen sooner or later, as deflation is not an options.

      As soon as rates rise in the US/EU, we will start seeing Impact on Rupee, it will trade above 50 a dollar.

      • 1 Reply to money_money_more_money
      • Wait, so you're saying that a devalueing of the rupee is going to make this company stock go up? Have you forgotten that 95 percent of this companies clients and business are in India and therefore they earnings are mostly going to be in rupee. A devalueing of the rupee will make earnings of this stock in dollar terms much less thereby taking down the price of this stock. I think you have gotten yourself all confused with the earning model of the outsourcing major where the earnings are all dollars and the expenses are in rupee. A stronger rupee in that case makes the earning amount much less in that case. BTW most things in India are expensive because they still have the 19th century creaky infrastructure and logistics system(hampering delivery of goods and services) and consumption(sales) tax is much higher there than in the US

    • Atlast the correction is happening...I think it is faairly valued now...

      • 1 Reply to mysticpaste
      • Nice call, but it went from $54 to $58 since you posted, down to $45 or so, back to $51 or so, now back at $45 and change. And it has a PEG below 1 now. if by fairly valued you mean now you can buy and make good money doing so, yeah.

        I sold half between $49-50 myself back in September. had some gains from the $30s area, but it had plunged all the way to $11 or so after I bought. Wild ride.

    • ndia raised interest rate.

    • A new CEO and she knows what she is doing going to 75 to 80 in a year

    • First, it was over a year ago that it was at $11.

      Second, what makes you think that $11 is the appropriate comparison point. It was $70 in 2008. What has happened since then to make it worth so much less now?

      Oh, you may answer, their was a financial crisis in the West. But then again, early 2009 was the depth of that crisis, and western central banks and governments have responded to that crisis. So therefore, the liquidation of any easily liquidated positions led to that low price, and the fact that India is growing very strongly, plus the fact the crisis abated somewhat, has led funds back to a high growth area.

      While i tend to agree that IBN may be getting some frothy money thrown at it after a very nice report, I think your post is a little disingenuous. I sold about half my IBN at $50. I may sell more of it or all of it on similar concerns to what you express. But if the stock was selling at $11. Or $22. or $33, I'd buy.

 
IBN
47.02-0.87(-1.82%)Jul 11 4:02 PMEDT

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