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John Wiley & Sons Inc. Message Board

  • leewalter2002 leewalter2002 Oct 24, 2002 12:54 AM Flag


    I'm somewhat familiar with the NAIC's investment philosophies, and would caution you on one point. Most companies can not be valued with any degree of confidence. Any good analyst will tell you this. For example, a technology company may make it through the NAIC screens and valuation models, but it does not and can not give you any insight into the viability of the company any further than 2 years out. Yes you can make a lot of money on tech, but i suspect it's more luck than skill. If the screens show the majority of companies as undervalued, then I would be suspect of their reliablility.

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    • Agree on the tech issues. It has been a hard lesson.

      Also agree on the evaulations and numbers as the project out. I have been looking at what NAIC does and have come to the conclusion that the projection of one year is fine but not trusted past that.

      I have started the process of re-evaluation of any stock on a more frequent basis then a year. All it takes is a little time a current copy of the value line and I can refresh and then re-evaluate. This with current news has helped. But as you say

      Also in the evaluation process I have read and used the Motley Fool's formula for small cap investing as well as two or three other evaluation grids that I have gotten from reading. I do not trust any of them alone but using the tools together I hope that I can build a better understanding.

      I will be reading about how you have done the evaluation and come to the conclusion of 8%.

      Again thanks.

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