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John Wiley & Sons Inc. Message Board

  • mowine mowine Jul 15, 1999 8:35 AM Flag

    price weakness

    just goes to show you that the market does not thnk highly of wiley's overpaying for recent acquisitions, which, in words of ceo, will not be immediately accretive to earnings.

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    • totally missed it hunka. never been to kc.


      by the way, there are very few holders of wiley
      stock---it is a very thin float with family being the
      controlling party. i think no more than 800 or so
      investors.

      here is the deal with thses sort of
      companies---regardless of internal fundamentals, they often wax and wane
      with perceptions about their private market value and
      the willingness to sell. typically, publishing firms
      have been valued at 2.5-3x their annual revenues. at
      24 and change, wiley's high for the year, the stock
      market put a value on wiley that was right on top of
      what a buyer for the entire company would pay for it.
      at 15-16 you are paying aboutn 60-70% of its private
      market value. it makes more sense to be a buyer down
      here.

      at least this is my thnking.

      the other thing
      is that the volume to the downside has been heavy
      compared to historical trading activity (i remember days
      of 2,000 shares)so you we are eithe there or very
      close to a bottom. but it could be
      awhile.

      and--remember that the bass brothers have three reps on the
      board.

    • Mowine, you missed my little jokey on yer screen
      name...mowine:MO Wine:Missouri Wine:Kansas City Wine:Wilbert
      Harrison's Kansas City...come on man, don't ya know yer
      blues?

      Geez, bait them and they will come...:)

      Kansas
      City

      I'm going to Kansas City, Kansas City here I
      come
      I'm going to Kansas City, Kansas City here I
      come
      They got a crazy way of loving there
      And I'm gonna
      get me some.

      I'll be standing on the
      corner
      On the corner of Twelfth Street and Vine
      I'm
      gonna be standing on the corner
      On the corner of
      Twelfth Street and Vine
      With my Kansas City
      baby
      And a bottle of Kansas City wine.

      Well I might
      take a train
      I might take a plane, but if I have to
      walk
      I'm gonna get there just the same
      I'm going to
      Kansas City, Kansas City here I come
      They got a crazy
      way of loving there
      And I'm gonna get me
      some.

      I'm gonna pack my clothes
      Leave at the break of
      dawn
      I'm gonna pack my clothes
      Everybody will be
      sleeping
      Nobody will know where I've gone
      Cause if I stay in
      town
      I know I'm gonna die.
      Gotta find a friendly
      city
      And that's the reason why,
      I'm going to Kansas
      City
      Kansas City here I come
      They got a crazy way of
      loving there
      And I'm gonna get me some.

    • you must take me for a real financial masochist.
      if i owned the stock, which i have in the past
      through several years of relative outperformance, why
      would i "whine" about it? why not just burn one hundred
      dollar bills?

      on the other hand, at 15 3/4, the
      downside risk here is minimal, perhaps to 15 or so. it has
      been, if you have held the stock for at least a year,
      what is referred to as a "roundtrip." and i ain't
      talking from 3rd avenue to 12th and pine and back.


      could be an entry point.if you are a believer, buy
      more.

    • do your own research i will do mine. i do not
      work at the company. i do know that their recent
      acquisitions are not seen as accretive (do you know that
      finance term, hunka?), but dilutive to earnings in the
      near term. it is okay to love the stock here---it is
      only down 35% from its highs.

      part, and a major
      part, of the lower prices was the perception on the
      street that with no heirs, the family would sell. with
      recent aquisitions, this no longer seems to be the case.
      hence, the other reason for the poor performance of the
      stock.

      as to lurking here, i have been in and out of the
      stock---at one point i owned quite a bit for several years
      of outperformance vis a vis its peers like mcgraw
      hill and houghton mifflin.

      your suggestion
      that i work there also hints at your awareness of
      possible internal cynicism at the company. i talk to no
      one there, i am out of the stock, but hopefully, for
      your sake, i will be proven wrong.

    • I believe I know who "mowine" is, and if you knew
      this person, the screen name would make sense. This
      person is a whiner and a gossiper. This person also
      probably owns a lot of Wiley stock,
      ironically.

      Don't worry about this person, as you seem not to.

    • What's your problem, mowine? If you have such
      issues with Wiley why are you constantly lurking on this
      board? You do nothing but dog the company and suggest
      that its sale is imminent without any support other
      than your constant suggestions that you're in
      publishing and know about these things (hell, you might even
      work at Wiley!) Personally I believe Wiley has plenty
      going for it (check out their first quarter earnings
      http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990902/s4.html, and a news release from Wiley back in December
      http://www.wiley.com/about/corpnews/respect.html).

      Make up your own mind about this company,
      and take mowine's postings with a grain of salt.

    • Any speculation as to why this stock has been sliding the way it has?

      • 1 Reply to Wiley_away_the_hours
      • wiley is slipping because the recently overpaid
        rather dramatically for two properties. they paid 58
        million for 18 million in sales for the pearson list. the
        buzz is that some of these titles had, especially the
        key ones, author team problems that suggests that
        wiley did not do a thorough diligence.

        part of
        the price of wiley stock has always been the
        speculation that they might sell their college division or
        sell the whole thing outright. with these
        acquisitions, which do not add to earnings immediately, wiley
        has demonstrated no interest in selling out. stock is
        a buy, however, around 15-16.

 
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