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Ampio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • th3k33p3r24 th3k33p3r24 Aug 29, 2013 2:28 PM Flag

    Wishful thinking Part 1

    Part 1
    Interestingly little reaction to the positive news on Ampion. Certainly a jump in price, and now a nice rolling increase with good volumes.

    Ideally (the wishful thinking) this gradual increase on higher volumes is due to institutional purchases prior to their initiation of coverage and becoming a significant market maker in the stock (which, of course, would result in AMPE getting the kind of valuations it deserves). With another Phase III needed for Ampion (unknown cost at this point), the chances are high that AMPE will need to raise funds - thus investment bankers - and at this stage of their development, a more established banker is more likely to have some kind of interest. Regardless, you know AMPE management has been talking to some of the players.

    A sale/partnership on Zertane can obviate the need for funding, however. In my (wishful thinking) view, the length of time this "imminent" Zertane deal is taking is at least in large part due to the size of the partner. the bigger they are, the slower they move - especially when there are such international complexities and ramifications (licenses already granted in some countries, etc.).

    More wishful thinking is this slow ramp in price is due to the initial analysis of the Optina data. They plan on announcing it in October (or earlier), thus they must have at least anecdotal evidence, and probably significant data already in hand.

    A key element to all of this is the complete absence of ANY insider sales - period. Not one share from ANYONE despite the share price increasing 145% over the past year. Nada - none - zip -zilch. No sales at all. Wishful thinking says that is because they truly believe the price is still way, way, way too low.

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    • Good write up.

      I disagree about a couple of points. The move up in price is significant and done in a down market. The controlled manner of the move and on increased volume whenever shares are offered at a slight uptick price shows clearly that the short pressure is being reduced. Not sure they need a new banker or any banker as a deal is likely to come first.

      You are correct on needing funds and management would love to partner or sell Zertane. They have said so in the past. The thing is to get a reasonable price. I would thin the goal would be enough money to get BOTH optina and Ampoin thru pase III trials.

      My understanding from the trail procedure is that AMPE does not get interim data during a trial unless that data either shows such a huge benefit it would be enethical to not give everyone the drup or there are serious issues. Optina is most likely in the middle as are about 98% of all drugs tested.

      As to insider selling - why would they? Got to remember 2 years ago before the shorts arrived AMPE was over $9. You also need only a positive sale of Zertane, an approval of Ampion or Optina or positive deals on the devices AMPE controls for the stock to be worth a significant multiple. Am sure those currently marketing the current standard for DR would gladly pay AMPE $500M for Optyina to go away. Similar with Ampion.

 
AMPE
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