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Ampio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • th3k33p3r24 th3k33p3r24 Oct 24, 2013 5:57 PM Flag

    Wishful thinking?

    Maybe this is just wishful thinking and the stock will tank tomorrow... who knows? But in looking at the recent action, I note the following:
    - AMPE completes a Phase 3 on Ampion, but not all the results (in detail) are publicly disclosed
    - Pre-BLA mtg set for 10/29
    - Emerging Growth Equities does a very detailed (28 page?) report apparently getting into details of the Ampion Phase 3 - and gives a $14 price target (imspecialed seems to have some insight)
    - AMPE enters into a 5 year (!) $11M (!) supply contract for HSA
    - Comparables for similar companies shows that AMPE is valued at about 25% of market, and maybe 10% of market with a very positive FDA meeting
    - Large (for AMPE) institutional investment over 2 days jacks the price by over 20%

    So OK... Would AMPE enter into a supply agreement if they weren't confident? Does the agt have a "subject to FDA approval" clause? Did EGE get far enough into the Phase 3 result to opine on the FDA meeting? Is a significant IB firm noticing and snarfing up shares prior to analyst coverage, and a $20+ PT? Are other institutions taking the EGE report seriously? ... and so many more questions...!

    With a very positive FDA mtg $11/$12/$14, etc would still be VERY cheap. Could we see $25 with a "breakthrough therapy" designation? More? Or is this wishful thinking and this will come crashing down tomorrow or post-meeting if the results aren't astounding?

    I tend to think that the cat is (finally) getting out of the bag.... and we've only scratched the surface of the explosion in this stock. I sure hope I'm right... and Agnew's (and other longs' prayers are answered!

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    • ...well spoken. I feel confident that AMPE will get some form of fast track/accelerated approval decision from the FDA. A $2 Billion+ market cap is an achievable goal, and that would put us near $50.00/share. A higher yet market cap is not a pipe dream either. As I've stated before, Ampion could be considered a "miracle drug" in time.

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