With the recent run up to over $10, beating resistant levels at each $5, $6, $7, $8 and now working on $9. Yes this company is poised to breakthrough and rally big time upon any positive news. The fact is: the pipeline within runs deep, it takes any near and long term risk out of the picture. Can't assume all will make it, but 50% of it wil bring in billions, then partnership or BO this could very well be $20 in years to come. Holding until proven other wise.
I like $50 a lot better than $20. How did you arrive at the valuation? Are there any published estimates for valuation?
I've been operating off of the dated Aegis report:(2012) $12 target . Clearly the probability of launch has increased from 60% (maybe 90%?) Royalty rate is based on assumption of outsourcing. May be much larger if production is in-house, but marketing support will likely be needed. [Aegis used 40% tax rate and 20% discount rate for NPV]
Ampion contribution to $12:
Launch data: 2015
Peak Sales $2.2B
Royalty Rate 15% - 28%
Probability of launch: 60%