You guys really help to soothe my soul. I have got sooooo much of this stock (120,000+ shares) that it has truly become a life's pursuit. I am not a wealthy guy, but have had this stock since before anyone had ever heard of it (most of it from before it was public and some for well over ten years) and at a ridiculously low entry point. I have already (unfortunately) disposed of over half on my holdings over the years - just to diversify and play and safe if nothing else.
Obviously, this thing going to $20 (or - shudder - more!) will be life changing. Even being where it is, is life effecting. Hitting $15 (and provided our other investment hold up) means my wife and I will never have to work again and can live very, very well. The result of this is a non-stop following of every trade and tick on the stock. It drives me nuts. Every penny is over $1000 to me.
The approach both of you take has been helpful to me ("I have ZERO concern with daily or even weekly price movements" - grindle; and "Time to quit looking at the account daily." - billwilliams). I still can't keep my eyes off of this, but THANKS GUYS!!!
I truly do not understand why you would own 120k shares of this stock or any Pharmaceuticals. I have shares here and half dozen other med stocks. But no one knows for sure a stocks will be approved. I have had a few that were (sure things) and failed and some that were called DOA but rec'd approval. If you do have million dollars now in this stock you should seek some real help. I have read remarks from people who have lost everything in these stocks wanting to take their life. I will only say Good Luck.
My path to owning this much stock in this company was a long and twisted road. Suffice it to say I've made a bunch thus far, but this last 120k just has too much near term potential to be selling out at anything less than the mid-teens (which I believe will be reached in 2014 - or possibly even late this year). I will most likely be selling a few thousand shares before then, but a pretty small relative amount.
Certainly every small biotech has enormous risk. The amount of risk in a portfolio is a matter of personal preference, measured in %, not #shares. I have ~15% of my portfolio in 2 biotech stocks (CPRX being the other). That's enough for my comfort level and large enough to matter (either direction).
But, I have a fair understanding of the biology, clinical risks and competing therapeutics. Clinical risk is a matter of probabilities and data. For biologicals showing more-than-marginal efficacy at Phase 2, there is a very high probability of passing Phase 3 (assuming population samples are compatible and transferable). True, it is not 100%, but we are being compensated for that.
I would love to have that many shares! I will buy more if it gets hit again below 8. Congrats for your due diligence! Of all people, my, wife sent me an article about the new arthritis drug. I usually find my own investment ideas. She won't let me forget it. ha ha
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Watching minute/minute, hour/hour, day/day will probably create too much angst. I'd suggest staying away from the board and only paying attention week to week, harder said than done but will probably let you sleep better. The Institutions involved now will move this stock at their whim to create whatever scenario suits their purpose. The longs will create the illusion of a hard selloff only to accumulate at cheaper prices. The shorts will create the gap ups in anticipation of good news to give them higher prices to short. Because computers rule the day they will adhere to some technical analysis to create support and resistance points. Re: the current stock price... Wasn't there a secondary done around 1 month ago for $5.50??? Stock holding up really well vs that price point, no???? I'm a BIG believer in AMPION and we won't have to wait too long to find out whether that belief will be rewarded
Yes... secondary at $5.50 not long ago. About 4.5M shares (institutional). Ampion is truly a miracle. it is so simple and elegant (no wonder the body makes it on its own). OAK is merely an easy application - the low hanging fruit on a tree that is remarkably loaded with applications. I believe Dr. Bar-Or will eventually get a nobel prize for its discovery and use.
Minute/minute tracking is anguishing - but so is working your #$%$ off for a week, and have a twenty cent move in the stock make it insignificant.
Pattern of this stock most interesting. Appears volume tutes buying at end of day yesterday and continued strongly into this morning. Those got taken care of and then price fell as retail traders started selling very small pieces....volume went to zippo as did price. then between 1:51 and 2:00PM, it broke lose again with buying. prior to 1:51 PM very minimal shares moved. AT 2:00PM (my next peek), volume increase radically. Between 1:00 and 1:51PM, roughly 19,000 shares traded, then at 2:00 PM a jump of 9,000 shares traded. reflected by the price moving from the 9.20's back to 9.38.....seems like the tute afternoon buying spree has begun again... interesting patterns....
Whoops, called it too early. Selling commenced again, guess some retailers actually expected new from the FDA meeting, which truly is a non-event at this time. Allowing the tutes to buy in at a reasonable price and build some stability into the PPS...All is fair.