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Ampio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • corsol45 corsol45 Jul 12, 2014 10:55 AM Flag

    market cap

    if Ampe reached $18 per share that would put it's market cap @ 1 Billion. does that sound possible or a pipe dream?

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • $1B is soooo far below actual market comps of biotechs that have significantly inferior pipelines.


      Which is why AMPE will very likely be a takeover target sooner than most realize

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to racavalli
      • My sense is a deal will be struck within 6 months of publishing the Spring data. The valuation will be very difficult to quantify given the potential multiple indications for Ampion as it relates to pain reduction of inflammatory conditions.....not to mention the potential for regeneration of cartilage. That being said, royalties will obviously be part of the deal.

        Does anyone on the board know how shareholders are compensated for royalties?

    • Seems reasonable, but general market climate also has to cooperate.

      Citi recommended a Buy, but assigned it to High Risk, appropriate for a small biotech

      $21 12-month target (Q2,2015) : $16 Ampion, $4 Optina, $1 cash

      From the Citi report:
      75% chance of Ampion approval

      13% peak market share in OAK

      2016 revenue=$120M, $7M EBITDA

      46M shares * 18 = $830M or 118xForward-EBITDA, 7xForward-Revenue

      Revenue growth is rapid from 2016-2020 (avg 50%). Once it's profitable, other investors will come in.

      Jefferies has a lower peak market share for Ampion, but stock is more likely to fluctuate with general market since there are likely to be multiple corrections and/or perhaps a bear market in 1-3yrs.

      There are chances for upgrades if Optina efficacy is supported, plus some additional revenue for other indications or extensions. But, there is always the headwind of the market and future competitive products.

5.62+0.22(+4.07%)2:34 PMEST

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