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Umpqua Holdings Corporation Message Board

  • bumz4444 bumz4444 Jun 13, 2008 9:19 AM Flag

    predicted 11's along time ago..

    and it is likely to happen very soon...based on the multiple that this stock should get... a stock price in the 11's is probably going to be the bottom end of the range... and 14's will be the high end of the range for the coming year...still gotta think they will cut the dividend...its too high a percentage historically..they paid .72 cent when the stock price was over 25...should halve the dividend to near .35 now.....

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    • hats off to you-you were right on the money....should have shorted when you mentioned it.....

    • A small cut would not be a bad thing - help them stay liquid . Personally I think a 4-5% reduction in the div. would be good for the long term shareholder .

    • Your predicted price range may well be correct, and wouldn't surprise me. However, the payment of a dividend isn't a calculation of what the percentage payment is historically, so much as it's a decision on the use of capital (much the same as stock buy backs). If there isn't a better (internal rate of return) use, then a dividend is paid. When you also factor in the market perception of dividend cuts, I think it unlikely that the board would want to go there unles earnings cratered. Thus, IMO, the issue hinges on how realistic the earnings estimates are.

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