Your predicted price range may well be correct, and wouldn't surprise me. However, the payment of a dividend isn't a calculation of what the percentage payment is historically, so much as it's a decision on the use of capital (much the same as stock buy backs). If there isn't a better (internal rate of return) use, then a dividend is paid. When you also factor in the market perception of dividend cuts, I think it unlikely that the board would want to go there unles earnings cratered. Thus, IMO, the issue hinges on how realistic the earnings estimates are.