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Umpqua Holdings Corporation Message Board

  • pencilpup2 pencilpup2 Jul 3, 2008 10:05 AM Flag

    UMPQ New year low, Ouch...

    Let us hope that the press/news conference that is to be held this month will hold a bit of good news. Sure we can expect the words challenging market conditions, but given the first qtr. report of I believe what was reported as adequate reserves for delinquent loans this should have all been factored in with a share price cut more than in half.

    I do feel that some of these regional banks will be looking at cost savings and consolidation.

    Thoughts?

    PUP

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    • I agree for the most part with Burnz. IMO it's earnings driven. The market looks forward to earnings. The whole sector is viewed as having an earnings collapse. Consider - where were the banks making their profit?

      1. Lot's in risky derivatives (UMPQ skipped that).

      2. Housing bubble. (UMPQ holds some mortgages, seems to have more than adequate reserves).

      3. Consumer finance (UMPQ's exposure... anyone comment?)

      4. Commercial Finance (UMPQ has been a profitable player).

      With the bursting of the real estate bubble, 1 & 2 are gone for the foreseaable future. With a recession looming, 3 & 4 are at risk. IMO, this is why the sector, including UMPQ is being hit. My reason for owning it is 3+ years into the future, with accumulation happening now.

      One must ask if there is a better use for their capital until that time. Now is the chance to find all those investments that you believe will result in the best long term gain - UMPQ or something else.

      One other cautionary note: management appears so straightforward that they don't bother to try to dress their quarterly financials, hence more negative earnings surprises than positive (at least it seems that way to me). A negative surprise here wouldn't shock me.

      Good luck to all.

    • Wild Sspeculation . . .

      Perhaps we are seeing a form of manipulation of the market, enabled by a combination of factors including the instant Internet, world wide U. S. dollar reserves and a no-confidence market segment, i.e. the US banking sector.

      Look at TMCV, or BAC for example. By selecting a target currently in segment disfavor, repeatedly selling "short," in larget volumes, the price is ultimately driven downward and profits taken at every depressed level. Very large international financial houses MAY be involved with huge sums of money.

      There is a mysterious reason why the equity value of PROFITABLE banks is being depressed so rapidly an so consistently. After one bank's stock is depressed to a low of a few dollars per share the shares of another bank start the downward spiral almost as if a target has been selected.


      As I said, it's wild speculation; however, a pattern seems to be developing in something other than a so termed, "free market".

      "Isn't that right, 007"?

    • Fascinating, down 59% since I bought it. Could the co. go under? The only up tick here is my intake of rolaids.

    • The recent announcement that much of Oregon real estate is some of the most over valued in the nation causes me some concern regarding future non performing loans.

    • Pup - I am assuming that this drop is not specific to UMPQ, but the market overall ($145 oil)and that more of the big investment houses and banks are nearing the point where sale/consolidation/out-of-business in getting very close. I wouldn't be surprised to see 1 or 2 more of the big boys get swallowed up after the 4th holiday.

      Good Luck

 
UMPQ
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