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Astex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • boringpicker boringpicker Aug 19, 2003 4:05 PM Flag

    What if?

    What if Sugergen hits projected sales of 30 million for Nipent in 2004 and has a profit margin of 90-95%?

    What if they get a FDA approval for Orathecin during the early part of 2004?

    What if Dacogen is a approval drug?

    I don't want to be caught on the sidelines when they finally move from an unknown to a known.

    What if?

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    • Good point. Lack of publications will really limit orathecin sales off label. Without them I stick by 15 million in sales. That is if it gains approval. What gives on the application anyway? I hate the lack of guidance this company seems to think is appropriate for shareholders. Promises can only get you so far. Execution is key.

    • to get off-label use one would need substantial publications demonstrating efficacy. As of now, there is very little to support broad offlabel use. Some activity has been shown in gastric and ovarian cancer, and in MDS, but no activity in all the major solid tumors like breast lung and colon cancer.
      Also, there is practically no data on rubi in combination with other drugs. One phase I in combination with gemcitabine, and no phase II.
      Until all this work gets done with positive outcome, and is published, off label use will not happen.

    • That's right, the market for pan can in US is likely 100mm or less for Gem. Factor in likely 3rd line labeling for ora, and I think 15 million is reasonable for awhile. They'd have to get substantial off label usage to get it into the 100mm club. The Analyst from Rodam was probably looking 3-4 years out from launch to get those numbers and then back-calculating the share price because there is no way that 300 mm is this year. Perhaps 3 years from now but they'd have to have a lot of things go their way. First is getting an application into the FDA. If they don't get that in until year end then you're looking at next summer at the earliest for a launch if approved. Not sure when an NDA for dacogen could be put together but likely would not be complete until mid-next year. They really need a management change to instill confidence because they have a couple compounds with some promise but do not have a very good track record. That's why I'm so darn angry all the time.

    • the hoops are the same: superiority of survival. Actually, in first line , equivalence to the control group (gemzar in this case) might suffice: thus the bar is LOWER for fiurst line. Maybe followup in the first line study is not yet complete.
      Gemzar sold 500+ million worldwide (I think it was close to 600MM. But please note that worldwide INCLUDES the US sales. Of the 600MM, 400 were in the US and 200 in the rest of the world.
      In addition, gemzar is approved also for use in lung cancer, which is a far larger market than pancreatic; and it is used off label in several other cancers. i would be surprised if the pancreatic cancer market for gemzar is more than 100MM.
      agree, a good partner can make a lot of difference, but where is the good partner?

    • if you call and pay a fee to rodman for the recent research report that posted a $12 price target by next year end, the price was based on sales of all three meds by year end to be over 300 million. (nip, orat, and decit.) so, if nip. makes up 25 of the 300, the remaining 275 easily puts orath. in the 100 mill club in a year as decit. takes the remaining 175 mill during the first year if both are approved. the following 3 to 5 years should propel the greatest growth, (30% market for orath, and as for decit. , i dont know yet until ASH in san diego to get a better feel.)--either way, it will put the company in black.

    • the 02 (primary study) vs gemzar isnt yet released and will not for a while because their emphasis (strategy) is to get this drug approved as 3rd line (requires less jumping of hoops). they will most likely make this a post market study with the fda once/if orath. gets the approval.

      in regards to sales, i believe gemzar did 500+ million in worldwide sales and another 400+ (125/quarter) in u.s. sales. (available in 10k in company report -ely?). as third line regimine, i truly feel supg can slowly grab 30 to 35% of gemzar's bussiness depended upon how aggressive supg gets if orath. gets approval. a good partner can make the difference with early marketing, production, and overall financial support. the positive feedback and support from the physician that pushed for gemzar is now pushing stronger for orath. approval.

    • I appreciate your information. I previously had read the ASCO release along with the pros & cons pertaining to the report on this board. It appeared to me that Orathecin overall did achieve superior results over the "The Best Choice" which included Gemzar. Even on a critical or conservative evaluation basis the results seemed to favor Orathecin. Also, the summary comment by Dr. Burris in the release seemed to validate the advantage of Orathecin over "The Best Choice".

    • Since only one analyst follows the stock there aren't any meaningful numbers reported for sales expectations. If they were to get a third line label indication they could maybe do 15 million a year. Even though orathecan is going for a third line indication, there are still other salvage therapies that have equivalent activity with similar or lesser adverse effects. They would have to publish more for other indications to maybe get some physicians to prescribe for something else.

    • Unless you performed the studies or work for SUPG you wouldn't know. They didn't release that, making it all the more suspicious that it was not comparable, otherwise they wouldn't be filing for third line. Go back and read the ASCO erlease. That is the best data available from the study.

    • Do you happen to know how Orathecin faired in the paralell studies with Gemzar conducted several months ago. Also, subject to FDA approval and even an equal showing by Orathecin to Gemzar, what would be a realistic projection of Orathicin's annual sales?

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