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Astex Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

  • duragen duragen May 4, 2006 8:27 AM Flag

    J20tower, what happened to SUPG @8.00

    I thought you said Supergen would go 8 a share on approval. Nice call loser.

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    • 06:52am EDT 4-May-06 ThinkEquity Partners SUPG
      ThinkEquity: SUPG: SUPG: Dacogen Approved With Broad Label
      In line with our expectations, SuperGen and MGI Pharma announced marketing
      approval of Dacogen. We view this as a major de-risking event for SuperGen
      that has not yet been reflected in its current stock price. We encourage
      investment in SUPG shares going forward, as we believe that superior data,
      more favorable reimbursement, and the marketing muscle of partner MGI Pharma
      will enable it to out-compete Vidaza in the high-risk MDS market. During the
      remainder of 2006, we expect data from alternative dosing schedules of
      Dacogen and Dacogen data from clinical studies in other indications to be
      catalysts for SUPG stock.
      Although not disclosed in the conference call, we expect MGI Pharma to
      price Dacogen at a premium relative to Vidaza due to its better efficacy
      and safety profile as well as the lower number of cycles needed to elicit a
      response. MGI Pharma reiterated their forecast of $25M in Dacogen revenue
      this year and of peak sales to reach $250M in 4-5 years. These estimates
      are in line with our forecast of $5M in royalty revenue this year and $87M
      in 2010.
      Price Target: $9.00

    • 08:28am EDT 4-May-06 Lazard Capital Markets
      SUPG: Dacogen approved with broad label for MDS; BUY

      We believe management's 2006 Dacogen revenue guidance of $25 million is
      conservative; maintaining our $43 million estimate. MGI Pharma reiterated its
      2006 Dacogen revenue guidance of $25 million, of which it expects $5 million of
      Dacogen revenues in 2Q to account for stocking. We continue to believe this
      guidance is conservative given that revenues for Vidaza in its first quarter on
      the market were $20 million and recently flat Vidaza sales leaves a large number
      of high-risk MDS patients available for treatment. PRICE TARGET: $7