06:52am EDT 4-May-06 ThinkEquity Partners SUPG ThinkEquity: SUPG: SUPG: Dacogen Approved With Broad Label In line with our expectations, SuperGen and MGI Pharma announced marketing approval of Dacogen. We view this as a major de-risking event for SuperGen that has not yet been reflected in its current stock price. We encourage investment in SUPG shares going forward, as we believe that superior data, more favorable reimbursement, and the marketing muscle of partner MGI Pharma will enable it to out-compete Vidaza in the high-risk MDS market. During the remainder of 2006, we expect data from alternative dosing schedules of Dacogen and Dacogen data from clinical studies in other indications to be catalysts for SUPG stock. Although not disclosed in the conference call, we expect MGI Pharma to price Dacogen at a premium relative to Vidaza due to its better efficacy and safety profile as well as the lower number of cycles needed to elicit a response. MGI Pharma reiterated their forecast of $25M in Dacogen revenue this year and of peak sales to reach $250M in 4-5 years. These estimates are in line with our forecast of $5M in royalty revenue this year and $87M in 2010. Price Target: $9.00
So, they all agree with my take that the downside risk has been taken out completely.
The only question remaining is how high the stock will go eventually.
$9 is really conservative for long term investors.
There was a time when buyers were so afraid that Dacogen might fail, and the stock was much higher. Now, we can buy the stock at rock bottom without any risk factor!!! I never thought this would have been possible.
Those moronic shorts still don't get. Good for new buyers.
08:28am EDT 4-May-06 Lazard Capital Markets SUPG: Dacogen approved with broad label for MDS; BUY
We believe management's 2006 Dacogen revenue guidance of $25 million is conservative; maintaining our $43 million estimate. MGI Pharma reiterated its 2006 Dacogen revenue guidance of $25 million, of which it expects $5 million of Dacogen revenues in 2Q to account for stocking. We continue to believe this guidance is conservative given that revenues for Vidaza in its first quarter on the market were $20 million and recently flat Vidaza sales leaves a large number of high-risk MDS patients available for treatment. PRICE TARGET: $7