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Astex Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

  • pourthechianti pourthechianti Jun 19, 2006 4:47 PM Flag

    Supergen Value

    This is just my opinion of the value of SUPG. I have tried to be conservative in the estimates and I will disclose that I am an owner of the stock.

    Nipent should be worth 2 times sales so I am valuing it at $40 million.

    Dacogen, if you assign a market for MDS of say conservatively $300 million annually.

    Montigen. Say the preclinical platform is worth approx. $15 million. I beleive I read that this is what it was purchased for.

    Cash. At the end of March the cash position was $49 million. Now with the mile stone payment of $20 million the cash position should be close to including current burn rate of $5 million per month. At this I arrive at a cash position of $55 million.

    The total value of the assets is $410 million divided by 55 million shares outstanding derives a per share value of $7.45.

    This is based only on my calculations which are just estimates. In summary, I think we are seeing a lot of market risk and pricing of the stock based on the overall market and not specific company value. I also have to believe that MGI would have to be looking at acquiring them at these values. MGI could offer $6 per share and get enough votes to pull of the deal.

    Constructive criticism open.

    Good luck to all.


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