This is just my opinion of the value of SUPG. I have tried to be conservative in the estimates and I will disclose that I am an owner of the stock.
Nipent should be worth 2 times sales so I am valuing it at $40 million.
Dacogen, if you assign a market for MDS of say conservatively $300 million annually.
Montigen. Say the preclinical platform is worth approx. $15 million. I beleive I read that this is what it was purchased for.
Cash. At the end of March the cash position was $49 million. Now with the mile stone payment of $20 million the cash position should be close to including current burn rate of $5 million per month. At this I arrive at a cash position of $55 million.
The total value of the assets is $410 million divided by 55 million shares outstanding derives a per share value of $7.45.
This is based only on my calculations which are just estimates. In summary, I think we are seeing a lot of market risk and pricing of the stock based on the overall market and not specific company value. I also have to believe that MGI would have to be looking at acquiring them at these values. MGI could offer $6 per share and get enough votes to pull of the deal.
Constructive criticism open.
Good luck to all.
Good post, but you left off SUPG's share of a potential deal in the works, for Europe and Asia (should get front money, plus royalty).
MOGN already owns 7.5% of SUPG. If you run an IRR based on the size of the market MOGN is conservatively projecting, MOGN must be getting awfully tempted to make an offer,sooner rather then later.
MOGN has no interest in buying this dog with it's inherent problems, lack of pipeline, employees and other liabilities that have no or little value. MOGN is projected to be profitable for the CY2006 and 2007.
Supg is projected to lose money in 2006 and 2007.
The only thing of value at Supg was Dacogen, and MOGN bought the rights for it already, along with the profits.
MOGN management was likelty ssmart enough to sell Supg shares well above $7 more than a year ago, imo. I'd be surprised if they still owned any of this dog.
There will be no buyout of this, that is why the stock is down 40%. Get a clue.
55 million shares are wrong, it is now like 62 or 63 million after they purchased Montigen, those shares are now in the float, and they got a hedge fund to slowly dump the stock during the past 3 weeks.
I noticed that recently SUPG is getting Nipent cleaned up and Wyeth out of the way, Yea I believe what is happening here is not totally due to the market, I believe that someone is getting ready to take these guys out. I would hate to be short. SUPG has more value now than anytime I can recall in the past.
I agree, company is in the best shape it has been in 5 years, but why on earth does it go down huge every day for the last month and half.
take out seems rather unlikely, but maybe the free fall with stop soon.