Rodman & Renshaw says Oncology Inc.'s numbers for August reflect an increase of ~100 patients in the number treated with Dacogen, which brings the total to ~700 currently. Firm says this reflects a 16% increase in patient number vs. July. In terms of market share, firm says Dacogen had claimed 16% of the MDS market in August, compared to 14% in July. Firm's current modeling assumptions indicate ~$43 mln in sales for Y06, significantly above the $25 mln rev est provided as guidance from MGI Pharma (MOGN). Since it is now clear that the number of patients on Dacogen has continued to grow, firm remains confident that additional expansion of the patient population will be seen throughout the remainder of the year, indicating that the Y06 rev est of $25 mln from MOGN appears conservative. In light of another strong month for Dacogen, firm retains their Market Outperform rating on SuperGen shares with a tgt price of $24 per share.
1) R&R has been a constant cheerleader for SUPG and this was just a reiteration, nothing new.
2) Dacogen positive news was already widely discounted. We'll have to wait for the earnings numbers next month and increased guidance for the real move. Secondly, any Nipent-ex-USA sale news could lift shares.
3) The R&R comments were not posted anywhere besides briefing.com, so the general public was not exposed.
No worries. Q4 is going to be loaded with positive catalysts in terms of Dacogen (expanded use), Nipent $, partner milestones and closing in on a new drug IND. Sit back and enjoy the ride to the teens in 2007.
I don't understand why this report didn't make the stock pop? I bought yesturday b/c of Dacogen and their high cash value and thought I had it made in the shade after that came out, but it hasn't happened. The markets are due for a correction here soon and I just hope that doesn't bring this awesome stock down with it. I hate when I get into an awesome stock just as the indexes take a correction and bring the great one down with it. I didn't go all in though. Waiting to see how it holds up to the market correction.
Would like to hear other's opinions on why SUPG didn't jump on the news. Thanks