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Astex Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

  • roryrae roryrae Oct 13, 2006 10:15 PM Flag

    What pipeline ?

    We are far off from any significant wannabee drugs. That would be awhile before we see any price movement dealing with wannabee drug.

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    • Techbrokers,

      The question I was answering was the one year target. I have full faith that SUPG will hit $24 and much higher in the long run. I believe it will be a stretch in the one year timeline. The projection for Dacogen WW is 750M and one estimate has it doing that in the U.S. alone.

    • BTW, the $24/share target price is by Elemer Piros
      with Rodman & Renshaw. He is the number one ranked biotech analyst this year, outperforms the second ranked by hugh gap, based on protfolio performance (!

    • <<The valuation of $24 I think is a stretch>>

      Maybe, may be not. J&J unit's willing to market Dacogen indicates that market for the drug is very significant, at least from their estimate. Based on current estimate, world wide sale of $400 mil(Dacogen) is a very moderate estimate. So, SUPG will have at least $100 mil/annual. Annual expense will not be over $15 mil after getting rid of these marketing and executives starting next year. This translates profit $85 mil/year. 20 times earnings is very moderate for valuation. So, market cap of SUPG will be around $1.7 bil, about $30/share.

      If you don't think Dacogen sale will not reach $400 WW, J$J Cilag must be an idiot for licensing a drug having less than $150 sale outside of NA (since MGI estimate $250 for NA which look like conservative now).

      Dacogen's pipeline possibly worths nothing at this moment. CLIMB is a technology, but its potential needs to be proved and validated.

    • Okay.. then what will drive the stock up in the short term? There is a limit on how much Dacogen itself can add to the stpck price. It is not like a diet pill that has unlimited market.

      • 1 Reply to filosofer989
      • Great point. I see a few key announcements that could keep the momentum or current valuation. The clause Manuso has of Jan. 1 about any takeover should not be ignored. It maybe just a never know clause that some lawyer threw in or just maybe someone has been inquiring. The forth quarter looks suspicious. Second and third quarter have some one time large events and the forth quarter could look like a let down. I see SUPG going from 20M+ third quarter to 4M forth quarter. Sometimes these one time events get forgotten and may look like a miss on numbers. The acceleration clause on Nipent to Mayne may soften that outlook. The other events that could be on the horizon is Nipent EU sale, Dacogen filing for MDS in the EU, Dacogen AML filing in U.S. I believe we will see some trading opportunities and believe management will space out these other events to minimize any real volitality.