Great point. I see a few key announcements that could keep the momentum or current valuation. The clause Manuso has of Jan. 1 about any takeover should not be ignored. It maybe just a never know clause that some lawyer threw in or just maybe someone has been inquiring. The forth quarter looks suspicious. Second and third quarter have some one time large events and the forth quarter could look like a let down. I see SUPG going from 20M+ third quarter to 4M forth quarter. Sometimes these one time events get forgotten and may look like a miss on numbers. The acceleration clause on Nipent to Mayne may soften that outlook. The other events that could be on the horizon is Nipent EU sale, Dacogen filing for MDS in the EU, Dacogen AML filing in U.S. I believe we will see some trading opportunities and believe management will space out these other events to minimize any real volitality.
I think it is important for the longs to discuss what opportunities SUPG has and what hurdles need to be cleared. The Manuso clause has received other discussions, from the boards I watch and the general feeling is that it is very unigue. I was drawn to SUPG because of all the careless negative comments that were posted. I also like the fact the longs are starting to discuss when to take profits...both these usually indicate that the stock will move higher. Long term the focus on pipeline should begin soon with the company laying out the foundation and expectations. I'm equally impressed by the conservative approach SUPG has taken. Instead of giving a large piece of the shareholders equity away to top brass, they actually eliminated a position and sold off non core assets. Look internally at this company and there are some nice signs that they want to grow this company. If SUPG partners with a large pharma on any of it's pipeline,then my suggestion is to hold long term. They will minimize burn and big pharma doesn't enter into these deals with out DD.
Upper management is hungry. The fact that they keep presenting themselves to the investment community shows sign that there is no complacency in SUPG. I also like their location being in Dublin Norcal where some big Pharmas are around. Genentech is only a hop across the Bay Bridge and Orathrecin(for solid Tumors) can be an eye opener for the like of DNA. I like it and will buy on any pull back.
Most everyone on this thread is missing the big picture.
Dacogen is a sleeping monster drug and will continue to suprise to the upside. Further, EU milestones and approval for other indications will drive revenue estimates (and royalties) up periodically. Have you all forgotten that R&R has a $24 target and the numbers to back it up? My thoughts are that if Dacogen is half as successful as some believe, SUPG will be at $15+ within a year.
It may seem like SUPG has been on a major run, but really we are just where we began when Dacogen was approved less than 6 months ago. Taking your profit on a biotech stock that has moved up 50% (after falling 40%)is not a wise decision. If you are going to take the risk of owning small-cap biotech, you may as well be here to witness the 500% move.
I'll reiterate though...the pipeline is the call option, but the real value is Dacogen and the royalty stream that will keep growing and lead to profitability soon enough and a PE ratio that will put a stock price floor in. MOGN will likely swoop in next year and take SUPG out for $750m, or $14/shr.