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Astex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

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  • techbrokers techbrokers Oct 15, 2006 10:32 PM Flag

    What pipeline ?

    <<The valuation of $24 I think is a stretch>>

    Maybe, may be not. J&J unit's willing to market Dacogen indicates that market for the drug is very significant, at least from their estimate. Based on current estimate, world wide sale of $400 mil(Dacogen) is a very moderate estimate. So, SUPG will have at least $100 mil/annual. Annual expense will not be over $15 mil after getting rid of these marketing and executives starting next year. This translates profit $85 mil/year. 20 times earnings is very moderate for valuation. So, market cap of SUPG will be around $1.7 bil, about $30/share.

    If you don't think Dacogen sale will not reach $400 WW, J$J Cilag must be an idiot for licensing a drug having less than $150 sale outside of NA (since MGI estimate $250 for NA which look like conservative now).

    Dacogen's pipeline possibly worths nothing at this moment. CLIMB is a technology, but its potential needs to be proved and validated.

 
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