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Astex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • kichigai06 kichigai06 Nov 13, 2006 10:23 AM Flag

    The Buyout

    The problem I see with the buyout scenario is this - because of the deal with MOGN, it would seem to me that the pool of acquiring companies is...1, MOGN. If MOGN does not want a buyout, I don't see where it would come from if the target is to get Dacogen. If another firm wanted Dacogen, why not just buyout MOGN, not SUPG, right?

    The other scenario is a buyout based on the pipeline which I would suppose could be attractive by any big pharma, although I would suspect they might wait until further into the dev process.

    Regarding breaking even - the small biotechs are not necessarily being bought because they are profitable. However, breaking even and beyond should mean a higher share price buyout or not.

    Am I missing anything?

    With that in mind I don't see a buyout in the near term but of course you won't see it coming and if you post that you do know, well you are either full of crap or playing with insider info.

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    • I think you are missing the following:
      1. MOGN royalties are US. SUPG gets 50% of worldwide.
      2. the new announcement that they have a drug in pipeline that will potentially be better than Decitabine (Dacogen) means MOGN may have just paid a ton of milestone payments (hoping to earn it back later) only to have SUPG come out with a new competing drug that MOGN doesn't get a cut of. That's huge and the news just came out in Prague.

    • The one fact that your missing about Dacogen. Supg reaps the largest percentage on WW sales of Dacogen 20-30%. I suspect, MGI only gets about 5%. WW sales are projected to be 2X-3X U.S. sales. So that 30% Supg gets, is huge compare to anyone elses. The others have to manufacture and market.

      The pipeline right now is exciting...but you are right it has to show validation.

 
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