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Astex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • billyteex1 billyteex1 Nov 17, 2006 7:28 AM Flag

    You be the judge

    As an investor we have to look at all the information supplied to us and make a educated guess at which direction SUPG is headed:

    We have Dacogen on course
    We have a pipeline in place
    We have shreded non core assets
    We have downsized operations and cut expenses
    No insider selling and 7M in warrants exercized last quarter
    We have nice milestones in place
    We have additional noncore asset for sale
    We have CLIMB which could discovere two drugs for years
    We have 74M in cash and growing
    We have in place a revenue product to fund growth
    We have several phase III opportunities
    We could be bought out at any time
    We have a pipeline that big pharma maybe interested in
    We have JNJ in our corner
    MGI has been praised by competitor on getting the info out
    Dacogen in a short time span captured 34% of the market
    Dacogen has help patients where Vidazza didn't
    Projected WW sales of Dacogen 750M
    Potential pipeline to replace Dacogen

    Negatives:
    A few analyst have SUPG losing money next year
    Company has never made a profit
    Company has surprise us with conservative accounting



    I will continue to buy and hold for the long term. Will monitor growth and insiders. Want to see results from the first phase on clinicals. If encouraging, believe big pharma will partner up. I look at a lot of Bio's and have been impressed with the direction SUPG has put focus on. We will have updates on Dacogen shortly and possible filing in the EU. The value of this company should increase with any hurdle it clears.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Yada yada yada. Billy boy anyone can say anything about any companies. What about the price up or down. Tell me where the price of supg will be at the end of the year.

    • managment sucks.
      1. NIPENT deal got underpaid.
      2. poor internal control

      • 1 Reply to chenghao888us
      • I don't know that it is fair to say management sucks. They seem�@to have a strategy - sheedding non-core and lowering OE while moving the top line forward with Dacogen. They did move Dacogen out quickly and effectively once it was given the green light. The aggravation I have is with:

        -very last minute change in the earnings accounting (it was supposed to be a merry christmas)
        -not a great PR machine going for this company

        Overall, it does seem to be moving in the right direction but just think we have lost out on stock price catalysts which is a shame. For me it is coming down to how long is the wait for a payoff and what is the opportunity cost.

    • Very concise Billy,

      Both sides of the argument represented. The list of positive items that need to be monitor for progress. I think it's important to watch the insiders and what they are doing. Looks like no insider selling and the bashers would of pointed any out to us. Company is projected by a few to come up short next year....with the facts as we understand them today. But no real news on any misses here. Company looks like they have some ducks in a row and may announce several items that would change these estimates. The company has become leaner and Dacogen is growing by all accounts. So I believe we see the worst case scenerio by some analysts. If certain deals go through and asset is sold or approval's are gained we can easy hurdle the 11M projected loss next year. If there were any guarantees in the stock market we would not make any money. Just got to keep are eye's and ears open and do our DD. You have put in front of the bashers a nice list to research....is there a smoking gun? Basher's just don't get it....we actually want to find something that's detrimental to our position to take profits. At least I do...their challenge and ours is to discover it. Point a finger at an arbitrary report next year is not sufficient...when you have so many items that could change that landscape. For a brief second yesterday the basher's showed some promise of actually doing a little DD. They fell short by not including one item that they could say positive. In the hearts and minds of the longs we want both sides so we can make a investment decision.

 
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