I believe SUPG want a clean slate for 2007. The last quarter 2006 will show a loss. But the street will be interested in the next 6-12 months. Dacogen story just starting to be told. Analyst are starting to project 140M in 2007 sales. That would make SUPG a breakeven company if expenses are held to 34M.
31.25M in royalities
4.0M in interest
I like posting just once per week. Not getting caught up with the boredom. If SUPG can sign on some decent partners on pipeline and this stock will appreciate. I have listen to Dr. Manuso's presentation at the BIO conference and he made no less than 7 references to partners on these pipeline drugs. It should be an exciting week going into these numbers and meetings. I have not heard anything that would spoke the market on SUPG. Pretty positive results on Dacogen. Alternative dosing should be in the works with a filing by MGI. Every little Bio has it's growing pains, but SUPG has decent cash position and revenue growth. Looking forward to MP-470 getting into clinicals...we may be real surprised at how big the potential for a drug to benefit chemo. Long road, but we have numerous events to support and appreciate this stock. I have said this before this ride will be fun.
SUPG receives briefing coverage of the bus week article.
01:08 SUPG SuperGen profiled in Inside Wall Street - BusinessWeek Online (4.61 )
BusinessWeek Online reports sales of SuperGen's (SUPG) Dacogen could hit $120 mln in 2007, according to Rodman & Renshaw, who rates the stock a buy, with a 12-month target of 24. SuperGen's own estimate is a more modest $100 mln. Its royalties from MGI Pharma (MOGN), which ownsn 9% of SUPG, will grow as sales expand, so Piros expects MGI to buy SuperGen at some point. Vinny Jindal of ThinkEquity Partners also rates SuperGen a buy, but with a much lower 12-month target of 8. He expects to see an uptick in Dacogen sales in the first quarter.
IMS data released today confirmed strong January Dacogen sales trend indicted by Oncln 2 weeks ago..sales rose by 25% in January. The absolute number, $9.54 MM translates to a $114 MM run rate. Assuming a modest 50 patient/month growth rate for the rest of the year, 2007 sales could be as high as $120 MM, or 20-30% higher than the guidance of $90-$100 MM give by partner MGI Pharma. We observe that while Dacogen is growing steadily, Vidaza was relatively flat at $11 MM in January.
I think its safe to say that dacogen will grow within the year due to little competition. Normally when a new product reaches market more doctors are willing to use it compared to old. However the real issue is supgen next product or the wanabee drug.
Dacogen Sales: Can Dacogen break 120M in US for 2007? Dacogen's efficacy is clearly superior with MDS vs Vidaza. Please confirm the accuracy of the numbers.
Rodman reported 8.3M in Jan-07.
Mogn is predicting the 90-100M for 2007.
ML is predicting 104M for 2007.
Rodman is predicting 120-140M for 2007.
In 2006, MOGN predicted 30M. Actual was 36M.
In 2006, Rodman predicted 40M, Actual was 36M.
Vidaza sales was 140M in 2006.
Vidaza sales was 125M in 2006.
Don't count on MGI filing SNDA for alternative dosing before the end of the year. They have no R&D staff left to do it. It will take them a long time to rebuild in Massachussetts, if ever. Probably doesn't matter much, anyway. Most oncologists are using the alternative dosing already.