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Astex Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

  • batzem batzem Apr 17, 2007 8:04 PM Flag

    New from Rodman and Renshaw

    Report issued today stares Oncology Inc estimates sales
    Jan $8.3 mil
    Feb $10.7 mil
    March $11 mil (remeber these usually differ from IMS numbers)

    States March market share for Dacogen 36.5% vs Vidaza at 37.5% and that Dacogen is gaining share and Vidaza losing share. Predicts if Dacogen gets 50 more patients each month sales will be $140 mil if 100 patients $160 mil.
    Speculates MGI may raise guidance tomorrow. Maintains $24 price target

    Sorry I cant cut and paste report but those of you who remember my past postings know this is an accurate recap.

    All is calm all is bright sleep well if you're long

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    • From R&R (research note dated 5/20, no link, sorry).

      >> Within the MDS space, Celgene�s Revlimid increased M/M in total patients and market share. Revlimid
      remains the dominant product within the 5q minus patient population with over 75% market share. In the
      non-5q minus population, total patients treated increased for the first time in four months. SuperGen�s
      (SUPG, Market Outperform) Dacogen was stable this month with a market share of approximately 32%,
      although experienced a declined in total number of patients treated. While market share increased M/M in
      first line, a decrease was seen in second line therapy. Pharmion�s (PHRM, Not Rated) Vidaza was generally
      stable M/M in market share, and showed an increase in the overall number of patients treated, with growth
      coming from both first and second line therapy.<<

    • Ony a 300K increase from February to March Dacogen Sales? Might be why the stock has been doing poorly this week.

    • rockmelikeahurricane1968 rockmelikeahurricane1968 May 17, 2007 4:56 PM Flag

      SuperGen "market outperform"

      Thursday, May 17, 2007 8:25:45 AM ET
      Rodman & Renshaw

      NEW YORK, May 17 (newratings.com) - Analyst Elemer Piros of Rodman & Renshaw maintains his "market outperform" rating on SuperGen (SUPG.NAS). The target price is set to $24.

      In a research note published this morning, the analyst mentions that according to OncInc estimates, Dacogen�s market share has declined from 36.5% to 24.8% in April. While Dacogen witnessed weak trends in April, the performance of Revlimid and Vidaza remained robust, the analyst says. According to Rodman & Renshaw, the size of the total market has expanded significantly.

      go to www.tradermatch.com

    • Here is R&R's last update and they were way off.


      Report issued today stares Oncology Inc estimates sales
      Jan $8.3 mil
      Feb $10.7 mil
      March $11 mil (remeber these usually differ from IMS numbers)


      These butt holes have a agenda. They had Dacogen first quarter at 30M...when the figure came in at 23M.

    • If my math is right this would put them at 30M. Not bad after 9 months. Vidazza sales last quarter were 33M U.S.. I would believe Dacogen over takes this competitor in the next 3 months. The 160M figure for this year would be very good news. This would put SUPG in black figures for 2007. Guess we will have a better understanding after the bell today.

      • 1 Reply to freetoquestionu
      • i could see how the crossover in market share would be a good metric for success. i'd like to see that publicized by SUPG. also, hoping for some news from the conference. perhaps SUPG is just waiting for the conference to end and will publish afterwards. if there are surprise developments that would really move this stock up quickly (thinking the NUVO case) but in absence of that, maybe a slow, steady climb based on fundamentals for awhile until clinical trials. JMHO.

    • batzem,

      Thanks for the info.