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Astex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • billyteex1 billyteex1 Jun 9, 2007 8:18 AM Flag

    Bio's

    Looks like dog days of summer for bio's has started earlier this year. I just read some updates on MDS foundations web site and some MDS patients have stated that they have received Dacogen w/valproic acid and had excellent results.

    It would be nice to see Supg keep moving higher but bio's take time. If we drop down into the 5.50 range I will buy more. I'm kicking myself that I didn't scoup up more the last time it was in that range. Second quarter numbers will be healthy and I'm pretty sure that several things that will benefit SUPG and investors are in the works. Dacogen numbers should be out shortly for May and all accounts are for more positives. The real mover for our shares is AML approvals and JNJ taking it WW to the next level. Just by measuring the progress Dacogen has made in 11 months of sales is reasonable to believe WW approvals for multiple indications are less than a year away. First pipeline drug is a very good compound and we could have first serious results by late fall. This news will come directly from SUPG and not rely on a partners update. I look around and cannot find one single small bio with a better chance of exponential growth. Looking at the charts July/Aug the difficult months to be long bio's.

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    • That is good reassurance. Last week was bad for SUPG and the entire market. Hope next week brings a turn around. Every time a stock losses value this quickly for no apparent reason I have got to believe that the institutions are selling because they know negative things that the public is not aware of. Yes that is wrong but it is a fact. I am still holding on because I believe in SUPG fundamentals. Manuso has stated that the Ortathecin or other compounds may be spun out into an independent company with SUPG owning a majority share. If this happens financial results would be reported on SUPG financial statements under the consoldated method. I see no upside for shareholders with this stategy. Better to issue existing shareholders a prorata share of the new company especially if it is to be funded by outside capital. Thats the way to create total SUPG shareholder value. You are right about the promise of EU approval WW sales increases. I think that we have a good shot at that. As some have suggested on this board if MP470 is eventually approved and it can be used alone or in combination therapy for multiple indications then we are really in business. Finally I tried to value this company on a cash flow basis combined with the existing hard cash the company has. Assuming we are now at break even on operations, and that US sales reach 80% of the projected $250M Dacogen sales that would yield about 51M for a 11M net income on one product alone. EU and WW sales can not be reliably estimated at this time due to uncertanty and I will not factor that in although I am hopeful. Finally we may see about 50M in milestone and partnership revenue within the next year. That makes 61M net/54M shares outstanding gives me $1.12 fully diluted earnings in the next 18 months ending 12/31/2008. Now even if we have bad results with MP470, that is a posibility that we must factor in that still leaves us with better than a buck a share in earnings. Add in cash on hand and by totally discounting the value of the other drugs in the pipeline gives me a conservative share value of $20.00.
      Finally if MP470 or 539, 371 etc. is viable then we have really have a long term winner. I am optimistic but I think that I will stop buying for now and hold on to what I have.

    • Dear Billy: I planned on taking the day off from this board but it hit me this morning: Could the poor performance of SUPG be related to the rumored down April Sales and then on top of that May sales, which would be known to MGI and SUPG management, came in flat or lower? Since the be drop in the stock occurred the first week of June the May sales numbers may have been a disapointment. This of course is just a guess on my part. With SUPG receiving royalty revenue 45 days after the end of a sales quarter, per the MGI agreement, and on top of that being recognized on a Cash Basis Accounting Method which I do not agree with from a GAAP standpoint (I would book the revenue earned as a receivable) Then SUPG in effect is giving MGI between 45-135 days terms on this product. While the agreement can not be changed I wonder if Manuso would ask MGI to at least report on a monthly sales basis. This would comply conceptually with FASB pronouncements as it would provide relevent, timely, and most important transparent information for both SUPG and investors to use.
      Maybe I have a thing against this CFO. He communicates poorly during the CC and while his accounting is on a sound basis I think these earnings could be managed better.

      • 2 Replies to lltinvest
      • I can't believe you are regarding the stock's preformance w/the late price change. If the latest data shows flat sales wouldn't next quarter earnings be below expectation.

      • lltivest

        Supg has plenty of cash so the revenues received from previous quarters is just standard business practice and not hurting them. On the cash basis accounting, since they cannot estimate sales for accurals, this is acceptable rules under Gaap. The CFO presents once a year and I would not be so hard on him. You walk a tight line in these presentations and he did a fair job. Remember once royalitie4s start to roll in WW sales, the timing of payments from MGI will come from JNJ to Mgi to Supg. So the quarter delay will allow time to get figures correct. Now on the subject of possible poor numbers for second quarter...Mgi has stated they are strong. If you rely on IMS reports, they do not have accurate handle on them. Ceo would of warned just like aloxi, he was confident sales are growing.

    • I look around and cannot find one single small bio with a better chance of exponential growth.

      Stop looking in the comic section.

 
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