It may be naive, but I emailed MGI investor relations with a simple question: The May 31, 2007 presentation (I think that was ASCO) MGI stated on a poster that Dacogen Sales for Jan-March 2007 were in fact 31.1 million. Was this presentation in error?
I will let you know if they respond. If R&R claim 23.5 million for Q1 is correct then if April/May were flat to down from those sales we have a problem. While the trials of the new compounds may prove encouraging, Dacogen royalties in the next 18 months will determine this stock's price.
I got hold of IMS numbers April sales were 10.2 mil March IMS sales were 12 mil but remember the last month in the quarter usually has 4 or 5 more selling days. The comparable IMS number for Jan and Feb were 9.5 and 9.4. mil. Thats where the 31 mil IMS number comes from. So.....even if you extrapolate those numbers down to get to the 23.1 mil I believe Dacogen is still growing and not declining as stated by OncInc. This also jibes with MGI statement second quarter sales were strong. Sales numbers for May not available till the very end of June. Hope this sheds some light on the situation.
We can always count on you. Why does the IMS number differ so much with actual sales numbers? I also believe that there are usually some nice discounts and net 30 days that maybe taken advantage by doctors, so the last month in the quarter may see the largest purchases. If you also compare this number to:
Jan. 9.5M April 10.2M
Feb. 9.5M May ?
Mar.12.0M June ?
I do not think that MGI presented at the R&R conference, however SUPG did. Mgi had a presentation at the Bank of America and I pretty sure it was at this conference that iltivest probably saw that slide. Glad your doing your DD and company may reply. Billy is right about better to question why they choose to report a IMS figure when they already reported the actual figure? It sure has Iltivest hung up on it. The figure is 23.1M and we need to see 2Q above this figure. If they come in with better than 24.5M (A 5% increase...it would put the street at easy that the 95M+ figure is attainable).
Thanks guys for clearing up that confusion. I will modify that question to MOGN investor relations. Will be on the road for next few days visiting my son at Chapel Hill. Maybe he will lend me his laptop (which I paid for) to see if we have a response from MGI.
Well, I applaude you on taking the initiative, but have to correct you on what they presented. The chart they used indicated the IMS figure of 31.2M, but MGI reported 23.1M actual sales in first quarter, prior to this presentation. The better question would of been why did they not use the actual number for the slide? I hope they reply back and would like you to copy and paste their reply. You seem to spend a lot of time with this figure and if you are afraid of a misstep on dacogen growth, I suggest you take half off the table. This will buffer you from a slide here. I don't believe they would make a presentaion at ASCO about dacogen numbers, because this conference is for updates on trials and future drugs. I remember seeing the slide and believe it was at the Rodman & Renshaw presentaion in May. So you probably have them a little confused. Maybe they will figure out what you mean.
Here is the resonse MGI investor relations sent me.
The $31.1 million figure we referred to in our slide presentation represents Monthly IMS Sales Dollars, not MGI net sales. The actual sales number for first quarter 2007 was $23.1 million.
IMS uses their own methodology to assign a price to the units they capture within their data and their data is not a reflection of actual net sales for MGI (or any other company's) products. Their data is the industry standard and is used by analysts to assess trends over periods of time and to compare products within a market.
Please let me know if you require any additional information.
To me it makes sense. The 23.1 mil is their estimate for sales. The actual has not been tallied and confirmed. MGI is very conservative company and with the fiasco with ALOXI numbers does not want to blow it with Dacogen.