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Astex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • zoomie2134 zoomie2134 Aug 2, 2007 6:30 PM Flag

    Vidaza Study and CC

    WOW! Talk about taking one on the chin. SUPG down 15% and PHRM up 60% on Vidaza Survival Study. Market over-reaction? Let you decide.

    CC: Great job by Dr Manuso addressing the Vidaza Survival Study from the beginning of the call. I agree that this legitimizes use of hypermethylating agents (Vidaza and Dacogen). I see the overall market place increasing for both Vidaza and Dacogen. I think Manuso and Beck addressed the overall benefits of Dacogen vs Vidaza; and they are extremely confident in survival study for Dacogen due in 08. Short term, I think Vidaza will get a boost in sales from this as more doctors transition to hypermethylation. I think doctors already using Dacogen and/or Vidaza realize the beneifits of each and will not change their regimine. I don't see Dacogen sales going in the tank like R&R (agree more with Merill Lynch setiments). Hopefully, MGI sales force is using this study as a plus and will expand on the differences in Dacogen vs Vidaza (ie Dacogen goes straight to the DNA and is 10x more potent than Vidaza, etc.).

    Financials: Still have not recognized all the Mayne/Hospira monies. Don't know why. Increase in expenses was expected, although I can live with 5-10% increase. Overall about what I expected.

    Future: Not much on MP-529. Not much on Spinout. Mentioned S-1. Most of CC and questions were concentrated on Dacogen. Probably will not be another IND until beginning of next year.

    Summary: What does this mean. I wish I sold at 6.3 and bought back today. I guess hindsight is 20/20. Oh well. Would have been some nice profit. I guess first of all rory was right about the risk with SUPG. Rory, if that birdie gives you 5 numbers along with lottery, give me a call. I still think there is no chance SUPG goes to 2. I think this is a huge buying opportunity (I did pick up a few thousand shares in the 4.9 range, however it is near term and looking to sell with the inevitable market correction). I am keeping my overall position in SUPG, and will look for other opportunites to make short term gains. I think the outlook for SUPG is still very good, but the timeline has been extended to '08 before we see something significant. I still think the spinout and Dacogen sales (lack of drop off or increase) will raise SUPG pps. I also still think it will climb back up to the 6.00 level after the dust settles. I think it will trade around 6.00 plus or minus .50 cents until news. Will relisten to the call later and take better notes. But overall thought they did a good job.

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    • Well just as I thought! Those rascals did not recognize all of the Mayne/Hopira Income. Time for a new CFO ! Manuso should have said in last CC they were going to defer this revenue. Seen it before and will see it again...4M shares traded today, down 15% +/- down yesterday (yes Virginia there is such a thing as wisper numbers). Just a disgrace!
      Well I am headed out for a Big Mac....well make that a happy meal. Anyway folks the sun will still come up Friday morning and those poor people in Minnianapolis have it tougher! So I will toast Rory tonight for his insightful and accurate predictions and curse the CFO who needs to learn that a dollar recognized today is better than a dollar recognized next quarter...or some unknown future date. Dr. Maunuso, Please Doc, fire that whole finance department and find a real CFO. Find a CFO who has heard of share value maximization theory.

      • 1 Reply to lltinvest
      • Illtnvest,

        You get your information wrong as much as rory did when he tried to read and listen to these reports. Third quarter supg gets 1.8M cash from milestones on nipent sales (NEW CASH). The $6M in the forth quarter is all NEW CASH. This was held by Mayne from the accelerated clause and it's all new money, not deferred. You have the same exact reading and hearing comprehesion problem Rory has. How can two people have the exact same problem and proudly post inaccurate info???? The theory on same sperm donater, my guess Alfred E. Neuman. Tomorrow we may see a nice turn around just like last quarter.

    • I listened too.. nice summary Zoomie. The thing I find interesting is MGI knew these study results were coming must have anticipated they'd be good. AND still raised their full year guidance for Dacogen..This tells me they believe longer term survivial is a class effect and wiil be interpeted as such by specialists treating this disease. The fact is Dacogen is a better more potent version of Vidaza and even though Vidaza had a huge lead in the market Dacogen csught up and surpassed it in less than a year. IF and its a big if Vidaza should briefly lead again in market share DACOGEN will again catch up and surpass and the whole market for these drugs will have expanded. None of this takes into account ongoing trials for AML and solid tumors. Its gonna take 9 months of patience but its gonna be worth it. In the meantime buy some PHRM puts.

    • Another important takeaway from the CC-

      Vidaza's study will help boost sales for the overall class of drugs (good for everyone)

      So although this may have dealt a short-term blow for increasing market share versus Vidaza, it may increase the size of the overall market, thus benefiting all participants.

      Excellent opp to buy here IMHO.

    • Well it's not that I know everything. It's that I question your own comments that bothers you. We have one reckless investor stating that dacogen going generic in May maybe. then when questioned about it, he has a hundred excuses. Then the cry babies bring up the DOW. They always leave out the main idea. BUY SILVER!!!! I don't care about a 30% move in the DOW. I do care about making a triple. Maybe you dopes have no clue to what a triple is. You're so busy finding 75% losers.

      It seems that rory, you want to paint half the picture. That doesn't fly with me. You have shown for 10 years that you are a complete and utter moron and that's on a good day. You have 20 ids. You run from one to the next.

      You lost again on this investment and you want me to stop posting the useful stuff I find. Not happening. You sold those covered calls, made 5.00 and lost all your shares. You want to Blame me for your stupid stock recommendations. I cannot blame you from wanting anyone to know. But you and batzem want to pretend you know things, but when question you run away from the answers.

      I never blame anybody rory. I have no complaints. My investments have done great. It's yours statement that haunt you.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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