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Astex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • freetoquestionu freetoquestionu Aug 6, 2007 4:07 PM Flag


    I hope this will help. Last week, right before SUPG announce the 2 quarter numbers, PHRM announced data from a phase 3 survival on vidaza. This is the drug that Dacogen competes against. The data released suggests a great increase in survival on vidaza for MDS patients. Now how does that effect us. Well the street sometimes shoots and asks questions later. Several analyst have put their two cents in on what this may mean for Dacogen sales. The street does not like uncertainity and since SUPG's only revenues come from Dacogen sales, we got a bad haircut.

    Supg board spent time at the earnings release and try to put a positive face on this development. But as always bio's are easy targets and the board of SUPG statements probably make sense, investor would rather error on the side of caution. Here are some good points that may have a positive effect down the road.

    -Cash position grew to 77.76M from 74.1M
    -Cash and equivalents grew to 86M
    -Adopt news later this year may indicate 12-24 cycles of Dacogen
    -Dacogen Survival data(out next year) probably equal or better than data released by PHRM that tanked stock
    -Mp-470 It was stated that ph1 and ph1B preliminary data would be available for ASH/ASCO spring 08
    -Talked very little about Orathecin divestiger
    -JNJ would probably file for a MMA in Eu in 2008-additional milestones would be triggered
    -New compound S110 was mentioned for the first time. MGI next year has the right to refusal. Since this drug is related to Dacogen and MGI would have 30 days to express if they are interested in partnering up on it. Then they would have 6 months to negioate in good faith.

    The news on competing product may steal some of Dacogen market share back. So until MGI gives some new update on what they see happening in the market, SUPG share price is uncertain. The uncertainity is being factored into SUPG.

    Personally, I believe that actually since the survival data came in positive, currently 50% of MDS patients use neither Dacogen or Vidaza. The competing product got the news out first and may benefit more on growth. However they beat out Dacogen to approval and have not grown at all in the united states since Dacogen approval. Vidaza has some bad side effects and Dacogen has a perception of a superior product. Until we get a solid update by MGI, this overhang will keep the price from appreciating. I hope this helps you understand.

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