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Astex Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

  • debdoesbios debdoesbios Oct 10, 2007 7:53 AM Flag

    MGI 3Q update

    Oct 17, they will release number at 5PM. Here is link:

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    • besides the price always recovered towards the end of the day, the volume also shot up the last hour.

      In additonal the past 3 weeks were all up weeks, closing price higher than the opening price.

      I am confident this week will be the same; my guess we will close around $4.95 if not more; If the MM are good at what they are doing, they will run it up before MGI earnings in order to cover more shares. Otherwise after Oct 17th they will need to pay much more. so i think we have a shot to see $5 before next Wednesday.


    • Just was about to post this and you found it first. If Dacogen has increased sales to around 38-40M for the 3Q and we get some indication that no hiccup in the 4Q anticipated, we are looking at a very good year. If sales hit:

      23M 1Q
      30M 2Q
      38M 3Q
      43M 4Q I think we see some sales outside U.S. in this quarter

      We are looking at 134M, a increase over projections of $19M and revenue increase to SUPG of $4.75M. That works out to .08 EPS in additional revenues that will hit the 1Q08. In 2008 MDS market should grow 50%, currently it's approximate 300M and next year would be around 450M. If Dacogen retains 50% (conservative) of the market, next year sales should be in the 225M U.S. sales + 25M-100M outside U.S.. Conservative 250M next year and Supg take $55M. Sufficient to cover all expense and make a $10M profit and throw in the milestones of $25M, cash at end of 2008 would be $121M. Might even be closer to 200M if we get a couple partnerships.