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Astex Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

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  • billyteex1 billyteex1 Oct 10, 2007 8:38 AM Flag

    MGI 3Q update

    Just was about to post this and you found it first. If Dacogen has increased sales to around 38-40M for the 3Q and we get some indication that no hiccup in the 4Q anticipated, we are looking at a very good year. If sales hit:

    23M 1Q
    30M 2Q
    38M 3Q
    43M 4Q I think we see some sales outside U.S. in this quarter

    We are looking at 134M, a increase over projections of $19M and revenue increase to SUPG of $4.75M. That works out to .08 EPS in additional revenues that will hit the 1Q08. In 2008 MDS market should grow 50%, currently it's approximate 300M and next year would be around 450M. If Dacogen retains 50% (conservative) of the market, next year sales should be in the 225M U.S. sales + 25M-100M outside U.S.. Conservative 250M next year and Supg take $55M. Sufficient to cover all expense and make a $10M profit and throw in the milestones of $25M, cash at end of 2008 would be $121M. Might even be closer to 200M if we get a couple partnerships.

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    • MOGN just be upgraded by JP Morgan. Rising Dacogen sale is one of the factors for the upgrade. MOGN should have a good run in short term. This may bring more people to take a look at SUPG.

      I was in front of Level 2 recently. Look like there was someone(s) dumping couple 10ks shares at the begining of trading to bring the price down almost everyday. Then small weekhands followed. Then buys started showing up.

      • 2 Replies to altech1998
      • This upgrade of Dacogen sales should have listed SUPG pps today also.

        It appears that short hedge funds are keeping the price capped today.

      • NEW YORK (AP) -- A JPMorgan analyst upgraded shares of MGI Pharma Inc. Wednesday, saying the stock could rise for the next two years due to sales of two drugs and one key drug candidate.
        Geoffrey Meacham said the stock is trading at a discount despite a strong run, as MGI's earnings per share should grow by about 50 percent per year through 2010. Revenue should grow more than 30 percent each year, he said, putting MGI on track to reach its goal of 35 percent sales growth for five years.

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        MGI shares have climbed 67 percent this year, and reached a three-year high of $31.06 Tuesday before closing at $30.74.

        Meacham upgraded the stock to "Overweight" from "Neutral." He thinks sales of MGI's nausea drug Aloxi and bone marrow disease treatment Dacogen will improve over the next few years, and expects the company's sedative Aquavan will be popular due to its effectiveness.

        The analyst expects Aquavan will get Food and Drug Administration approval in July 2008.