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Astex Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

  • batzem batzem Oct 31, 2007 12:29 PM Flag

    Vidaza Sales Number

    I predict $32.1 mil. Lets see who comes closet

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    • Dacogen sales for 3rd Q and year over year from MGI press release:
      Dacogen sales rose to $34.6 million. In the third quarter of 2006, its first full period on the market, it brought in $11.9 million.

      Vidaza sales for 3rd Q and year over year from PHRM press release:
      In the U.S., sales of Vidaza totaled $33.3 million in the third quarter of 2007, equal to the same quarter of 2006.

      ALL INCREASES IN YoY VIDAZA SALES ($5.7 MILLION) CAME OUTSIDE U.S. Here's why, Pharmion said: Worldwide sales of Vidaza� (azacitidine for injection) totaled $42.3 million in the third quarter of 2007, compared to $36.6 million in the same quarter of 2006. Named patient and compassionate use sales of Vidaza in Europe and other international markets totaled $9.0 million in the third quarter of 2007, compared to $3.3 million in the third quarter of 2006.

      The street will soon digest that Dacogen beats Vidaza when they compete (only in the US). Soon, when J & J gets Dacogen approval in Europe, Dacogen will outsell Vidaza there.

      To conclude . . Dacogen has greater market share in US, has grown 300%+ in a year while Vidaza US sales were, as Pharmion says "equal to the same quarter of 2006." This leads me to believe the August Vidaza survival data should not have sent PHRM pps up 40% and SUPG down from $6.40 to $3.93.

    • I think everyone is putting too much emphasis on PHRM earnings call. What are they going to say? "We realized Dacogen is the superior product....." NO. They will continue to say they are gaining market share (which is true since the overall market is growing). If they are asked if they are taking market share away from SUPG, I think you will see a "bit of tap dancing". They will probably start going into the fact that Vidaza is the only drug that shows a survival benefit over standard care, and so on. They will not be forced to answer questions until the survival rates come out for Dacogen. Then, and only then, will they have difficult questions to answer. If you are considering a short position on PHRM, I will suggest you be cognizant of the small float and large institutional ownership. That can support a stock's pps even when it is not deserving. Granted eventually the bottom falls out (ie look at RadioShack).

    • my 32.1 is US only

    • I like this, could be interesting to see who's closest to actual numbers.

      Here's my guess: 33.5M in U.S. and 9.5M outside U.S. with compassionate and named patients.