Starts coverage of SUPG with a market perform rating, Paraphrasing says they have spoken to many clinicians who all believe survivial benifit demonstrated by Vidaza is a a class effect and believe EORTC study will show a benifit but question the magnitude. Quoting " However concern resides in the fact that that the study has capped the maximum number of cycles at eight and there is a wide expectation that the median will actually be five cycles .As a result the protocol may have capped the potential survival advantages setting the stage for a less than optimal final result compared to Vidaza." Again paraphrasing state pipeline is intriguing but way to early to assign any value. Believe Cilag a very strong EU marketing partner and believe the next major potential for Supg is not till first half 09 when Dacogen is approved in EU.
They are not the only one who question the duration of the trial, here is another one ============================================================= Reames gave a 'Market Perform' rating to MGI Pharma Inc. (NASDAQ:MOGN) and SuperGen Inc. (NASDAQ:SUPG) , the two companies that make Dacogen, which competes with Celgene's drugs.
He said the buyout makes Vidaza a larger threat to Dacogen sales. He also wondered why MGI said it is seeking strategic alternatives -- which could include a sale of the company -- as its fortunes should improve in the second half of 2008.
Reames added that he expects an ongoing clinical trial to show that Dacogen improves survival more than Vidaza does. However, he said the trial may be too short, making the benefit look smaller than it is.
Applied for in 08, approval probably early 09. It takes awhile for EMEA to look over all the supporting data. The other key point for those that just joined the board, JNJ wants the full package to submit to EU, which includes MDS,Adopt,Survival and AML.