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Astex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • batzem batzem Jan 4, 2008 10:47 AM Flag

    Random Thoughts

    ! For the last few weeks Supg has been trading at about 60% of its normal volume. There are clearly no buyers but there is not a panic sell off either

    2 Less than stellar EORTC survival results are currently priced into the stock. Dacogen does not need to meet the Vidaza survival data numbers to be a player as long as they are in the ball park. NO ONE knows the results of the EORTC numbers and if they are better than the disaster the stock price reflects we will see a substantial pop.

    3. Dacogen does not need to have half the market to be suuceesful even if they retain only a 30% share it will throw off substanttial dollars based on the market projections.

    4 We still have S110 and maybe someday MP470 will surprise and be partnered out.

    5 The trick is not to blow all the royalty dollars on speculative R&D. They need to pick their shots carefully and partner out early stage compounds for less money but remove the risk

    4. I dont think Eisai bought out MGI for the price they paid without doing due dilligence and assigning a substantial value to the Dacogen franchise. They already knew about the Vidaza success when they made the bid

    5 It is not Manuso job to assuage the boards fears over the stock price . He needs to make good deals and keep the expenses under control. He's doing that.The stock price will eventually take care of itself.

    6 Its painfull to watch the price but we have a drug that clearly will retain substantial market share under any scenario and continue to fund R%D An excellent cash position with no dilution in sight. A potential homerun in S110 Still the promise of a potentail buyout and the possiblity EORTC results will be better than expected.

    7 At this price the stock is a wonderful opportunity although the next few months may conitnue to be painful I have bet a lot of money next year at this time holders of SUPG will be much happier. MARK THIS POST.

    8 Wild Card ......Roryrae is buying

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    • My Deaar Reit Im afraid you dont get it at all

      1. I didnt blame the "vagaries" of the stock market for the recent price decline. I blamed the Vidaza survival data coupled with doubts over the outcome of the EORTC studies because of faultiy study design for the ongoing price decline. If you care to wake up you'll see the price decline started with the Vidaza announcement

      2.I can do the math It ia you who are challenged.Between the US and Europe the market is expected to be 1.5 billion -2 bill at a minimum which throws off 150 mill in royalties to SUPG again at minimum if Dacogen has a 30 % share,which is $2 dollars pre tax. Trust me the stock will trade a lot higher if this comes to pass

      3 Are you naive enough to believe when a CEO or Board member of any company invest a few bucks in the stock it means anything. Why should they when they are sitting on options and restricted stock. It means nothing and in fact they should diversify their holdings so in reality they are stupid if they do except for maybe Warren Buffet. I can show you hundreds of great companies where the CEO never bought a share. Again maybe he cant buy any shares there are many reasons he could be blacked out

      4 You can be a great CEO a visionary and have a stock price going South for a myriad of reasons SUPG stocksprice is down because of Vidaza results could Manuso control that?

      5 If you control costs, make good deals and execute your business plan you'll be successful I dont see any evidence he isnt doing those things.

      A horrible stock market combined with uncertainty is the reason for our decline sometimes s... happens. You either wait it out or you dont. THERE ARE NO QUICK FIXES FOR PHARMACEUTICAL STOCKS

      Happy New Year.

      • 1 Reply to batzem
      • Senior management should purchase stock of their own company on the open market, especially after annoucing a "buying opportunity". Enron & MCI should have taught us that. It shows a complete lack of confidence in one's own ability to manage and that is translated by the street as running scared. The big problem today is that Dacogen is perceived as the drug to try AFTER Vidazza has failed. If I was the marketing manager I would move quickly to rectify that. If we are betting the farm on 470 & 529 we better get at least one approval. I really do not know the market potential for these drugs but hope someone in senior managment has taken the time to weigh the risks of R&D costs that may not result in a marketable product. If we are not talking about at least a billion dollar payoff then I have my doubts.

    • 8 Wild Card ......Roryrae is buying

      The post about buying was from Roryroe not Roryae. The id was created the same day the post was made.

    • This is the most well thought out post I remember reading on this board. I think it is great that you took the time to post this. This is like having a one on one tutorial from SUPG. I won't ask you about Climb - again o:)

      When my covered calls on OSIP get executed, I am going to buy a few more shares for my account and my kids education fund.

      Thanks again for your thoughts

    • I was a large MGI sharehold and I think the buyout was about sales force more than drugs like Dacogen. they wanted a US presence!!!!

 
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