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Astex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

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  • batzem batzem Jan 4, 2008 9:19 PM Flag

    Random Thoughts

    My Deaar Reit Im afraid you dont get it at all

    1. I didnt blame the "vagaries" of the stock market for the recent price decline. I blamed the Vidaza survival data coupled with doubts over the outcome of the EORTC studies because of faultiy study design for the ongoing price decline. If you care to wake up you'll see the price decline started with the Vidaza announcement

    2.I can do the math It ia you who are challenged.Between the US and Europe the market is expected to be 1.5 billion -2 bill at a minimum which throws off 150 mill in royalties to SUPG again at minimum if Dacogen has a 30 % share,which is $2 dollars pre tax. Trust me the stock will trade a lot higher if this comes to pass

    3 Are you naive enough to believe when a CEO or Board member of any company invest a few bucks in the stock it means anything. Why should they when they are sitting on options and restricted stock. It means nothing and in fact they should diversify their holdings so in reality they are stupid if they do except for maybe Warren Buffet. I can show you hundreds of great companies where the CEO never bought a share. Again maybe he cant buy any shares there are many reasons he could be blacked out

    4 You can be a great CEO a visionary and have a stock price going South for a myriad of reasons SUPG stocksprice is down because of Vidaza results could Manuso control that?

    5 If you control costs, make good deals and execute your business plan you'll be successful I dont see any evidence he isnt doing those things.

    A horrible stock market combined with uncertainty is the reason for our decline sometimes s... happens. You either wait it out or you dont. THERE ARE NO QUICK FIXES FOR PHARMACEUTICAL STOCKS

    Happy New Year.

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    • Senior management should purchase stock of their own company on the open market, especially after annoucing a "buying opportunity". Enron & MCI should have taught us that. It shows a complete lack of confidence in one's own ability to manage and that is translated by the street as running scared. The big problem today is that Dacogen is perceived as the drug to try AFTER Vidazza has failed. If I was the marketing manager I would move quickly to rectify that. If we are betting the farm on 470 & 529 we better get at least one approval. I really do not know the market potential for these drugs but hope someone in senior managment has taken the time to weigh the risks of R&D costs that may not result in a marketable product. If we are not talking about at least a billion dollar payoff then I have my doubts.

      • 1 Reply to lltinvest
      • I agree with a lot of things you post. But insider's not purchasing does not equate to Enron or MCI. Do you know how many directors or officers of PHRM purchased on the open market in the last 2 years? NONE. If you look at the filing's the one that stands out is Director James Blair, but if you read the Form 4 all his shares where acquired via partnerships (Domain Partnership IV). NOT ONE PURCHASE ON THE OPEN MARKET. In fact insiders have been selling like crazy. Before and after the merger. MOGN? Lst purchase on the open market by a director or officer was in August of 2006. Both of these companies just got aquired and PHRM has tripled over that time. Directors and Officer's buying on the open market is not very common.

        The one thing I agree with you is that Dr. Manuso SHOULD HAVE NEVER made the comment that this is a "buying opportunity" at the Earnings Call, and then in the next months NEVER purchased a share. THAT WAS A TREMENDOUS MISTAKE. As CEO you back up what you say. It is a credibility issue.

 
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