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Astex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • sachinhub sachinhub Feb 8, 2008 12:11 PM Flag

    Update on EORTC trial from Eisai - Great for SUPG

    The following quote is from the Q & A session at the Merrill Lynch Healthcare conference 02/06/08 from Eisai management. This appears to be the most direct insight into the EORTC trial that has been made public to date.

    Eisai (FYI for those who don't know) just bought MGI (Dacogen is their 2nd biggest drug and is their only growing drug).

    So the question comes down to this - do you believe SAC Capital or Eisai?

    Question:
    "When you made your acquisition of MGI PHARMA what were your assumptions for the EORTC trial for Dacogen for overall survival in MDS?"

    Answer:
    "That is a very good question:"
    "My team observed due diligence really intensely, monitored study enrollment and how many cycle patients went. Because my assumption is that the more cycles patients goes that survival is much better. That is our assumption and that is our belief. Currently we observed that the majority of the
    patients went through quite number of the cycles. That tells me that we are very much optimistic about having an overall survival benefit from that study. The study is completing and the results should be available soon. We are in the process of how to transfer the database for the submission in the United States to get the overall survival labeling."

    The link to the audio cast is listed below:

    This particular question and answer is around audio mark 32:43. You can fast forward to the quote.

    Shortcut to: http://www.eisai.co.jp/index-e.html

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    • posterposterposterposter posterposterposterposter Feb 10, 2008 12:11 AM Flag

      His point is SUPG is a short. He himself might be a short too

      It is all about speculation. Those analysts are not necessarily know more than some people on this board.

      The two opposite views from two analysts reflect their own trading positions.

    • posterposterposterposter posterposterposterposter Feb 10, 2008 12:00 AM Flag

      This is why SUPG went to a new 52-week low in the last couple of days!

      My guess is the author of that analysis is shorting SUPG

    • He was saying Lazard is a buy (LAZ) because its merger & acquisition business will pick up in 2008.

    • I am assuming you are saying Lazard is saying SUPG is a buy??

    • Lazard rated a big buy by one of Consuelo's guests tonight on PBS. They (Lazard) must know what they're talking about.

    • so what's your point?

    • Here is another comment fr FBR re Vidaza.

      01-Feb-08 07:41 ET In Play Celgene: Strong Q4 on good Revlimid sales growth; PHRM acquisition set to drive top line - FBR (56.11 ) : Friedman Billings notes CELG reported a strong quarter with EPS of $0.31 on total revs of $415 mln; the Street was at $0.31 and $391 mln, respectively. Revlimid sales of $247 mln were slightly higher than preannounced sales earlier this month. Demand for the drug in the U.S. grew 9% sequentially, and Revlimid is continuing its strong rollout with a 20% share in front line and 30%-40% share in refractory patients. firm made no product sale changes to their model and just tweaked expenses. They are at $1.27 bln in Revlimid sales for the year (the Street is at $1.28 bln) and EPS of $1.59 (the Street is at $1.54). Celgene's acquisition of PHRM is expected to close in March; the acquisition will add significant value to CELG's top line, positioning the co as one of biotech's best growers, particularly if Vidaza gets Europe to itself.

    • FBR has made these comments beginning last week re potential EROTC "failure".

      28-Jan-08 14:21 ET In Play Celgene may be best positioned to benefit from failure of Dacogen EORTC trial - Friedman Billings (53.69 +2.22) -Update : Friedman Billings notes that thsi morning, CELG announced that German anti-trust regulators approved the Pharmion (PHRM) merger. Firm now believes the closing could come in March. Firm says the earlier-than-expected closing would mean that CELG--rather than PHRM--is best positioned to benefit from a failure of the Dacogen EORTC trial, which is looking increasingly likely (results expected in April or May). Firm says failure of the Dacogen trial could add $500 mln to peak sales of Vidaza and make PHRM's top-line contribution to CELG more like $1.5 bln in 2011 rather than the $1 bln projected by PHRM in the proxy filed last week.

    • I posted yesterday, that eisai would of done their homework on this trial. If they ended up with 7 cycles on average, this could be very good news. I wonder how this goes down if Dacogen actually shows a higher survival benefit? I also liked that Eisai is atarting to get their ducks in a row on filing for addition to the label on survival in the U.S.

      Just have to wait it out.

      • 1 Reply to freetoquestionu
      • 13:45 SUPG SuperGen: Management cites optimism surrounding Dacogen’s results expected soon - Lazard (2.84 +0.12)

        Lazard notes that at an investor conference yesterday, Eisai mgmt cited optimism surrounding Dacogen's results expected soon from the EORTC survival study in high-risk MDS patients. Eisai mgmt is in the process of transferring the database for the submission in the U.S. to include the overall survival labeling. This indicates to firm that Eisai is confident Dacogen will demonstrate a median overall survival benefit versus the control arm in the important EORTC study. Firm believes the stock is fully valued in the $5.00-$6.00 range, based on a net present value of the Dacogen royalty rev stream, plus $1.20 in cash, assuming that SUPG ends 2008 with roughly $72 mln in cash.

    • Thanks best find in months I listened to it just to hear how it sounded and it sounded SWEET, I have said all along Eisai did not spend 2 bill without some due dilligence on MGI's second leading product. However the stock performance of late can cause one to lose their rational perspective. Louie I think this is the start of a beautiful freindship. GO SUPG

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