Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Astex Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

  • lltinvest lltinvest Jun 5, 2008 9:37 PM Flag

    Higher on moderate volume

    The chart seems to go up pretty much all day yet the volume was not low or high. I starting thinking that if EU dissaproval is really a strong posibility then why do we not see institutional selling in large volumes? Surely they do not want to get stuck holding the bag if SUPG goes below $2.00. At least they would pair down their large positions. So that means they are very optimistic about the pipeline and do not want to miss out on MP470's posible success. EU approval would be view as a bonus. Sure we will drop 20-30% upon EU bad news but I bet we recover quickly.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • I think you have it right. In one of these analyst pieces, they gave the statistic that 90%+ of doctors are not using EORTC dosing for patients.

      They are using ADOPT style dosing since all of the data shows that is the best strategy.

      I think the EORTC will come down to how close the data follows the model of decitabine that doctors believe at this point.

      If, as some of these (Citi) analysts are now saying the cycles comes in really low 2-4, then I have a hard time believing that poor results - even to the point of not meeting endpoints - will have a huge effect on sales (except in delaying application for EU) since that would be expected.

      Anyone have any update on the AML PhIII trial, could be a near term catalyst if they did that one right.

    • <<So Jelly, we are waiting on a result that we know that was flawed to start in regards to survival benefit because Dacogen appears to work best in more dosing over a longer period of time?>>

      Something like that, yes. My memory is bad, and I am sure someone will correct me on this. I think ADOPT showed that lower dosages over a longer period of time and with additional cycles showed greater efficacy than the dosage and cycles that were approved by the FDA.

      <<Wow looks like the marketing team at Eisai will ahve there hands full if the results stink.>>

      IMO, I think JNJ will take the biggest burden here as it will be they who will need to put a positive spin on whatever results come from EORTC. Dacogen is approved here in the states, and EISAI has a good track record to point at in their marketing. I think that is one reason why the market share has held up so well. Doctors are observing results even though clinical tests don't document the results.

      <<One of reasons I have held on tightly to SUPG is because head to head, Dacogen has lost very little market share to Vidaza since the August bombshell. Doctors MUST be seeing some good things from Dacagen in terms of patient results or sales would have fallen off the table no???>>

      Exactly! That's why this $2.50 price tag for the shares is so baffling.

    • So Jelly, we are waiting on a result that we know that was flawed to start in regards to survival benefit because Dacogen appears to work best in more dosing over a longer period of time? Wow looks like the marketing team at Eisai will ahve there hands full if the results stink.

      One of reasons I have held on tightly to SUPG is because head to head, Dacogen has lost very little market share to Vidaza since the August bombshell. Doctors MUST be seeing some good things from Dacagen in terms of patient results or sales would have fallen off the table no???

    • There has been indications of a 20 month guideline, but there have not been any tests specifically designed to show a survival benefit.

      That is why the EORTC trial was supposed to be so pivotal. It was at least partially designed to show a survival against best supportive care.

      Too bad we didn't know then what we know now about lower dosing.

      <<Maybe I'll just put you on ignore and rely on someone else to reference your profound post if and when it does come.>>

      You better not. When the moment arises, everyone will be shocked speechless and you will still miss it.

      ;-)

    • It's funny that you accuse someone else of changing the subject yet you don't answer direct questions, ever.

      What question didn't I answer.

    • The 20 months was from ADOPT I believe, which was on a different administration cycle than EORTC (which is why everyone understands that the EORTC trial design was flawed, because after the trial was setup it was found that more doses, over a longer period of time with less potency was the best way to administer Dacogen.

      And rory, PLEASE stop posting here, really. You don't add anything, at all. I REALLY want to put you on ignore but I'm afraid I'll miss the 1 post where you're actually useful. It's funny that you accuse someone else of changing the subject yet you don't answer direct questions, ever. Hmmmmmmmm.

      Maybe I'll just put you on ignore and rely on someone else to reference your profound post if and when it does come.

    • Was it confirmed ?

    • Nice recap. What would constitute "EORTC trial Fails"? I thought survival benefit was confimed at 20 months vs 24 months for Vidaza. What other component(s) am i missing here?

    • Hey Mero...

      How's life on this board?

      SUPG seems to love it's recent trading range, can't get more than 10+ cents up/down here and there.
      When's the next catalyst to move this?

    • businesspower@sbcglobal.net businesspower Jun 6, 2008 11:19 AM Flag

      Haven't we already dropped the referenced 20% - 30% in an anticipation of bad news (eortc, eu,... pick any)?