You have a valid point that a successful survival trial would probably take too long. I think the potential of S-110 is too great to shortchange it with the strategy you propose. I hope the EORTC results are good and this issue just goes away. If not I hope J&J and Eisai have a good solution.
Spice, One word for your concern - Manuso. The street thinks this guy is an absolute buffoon, and Supg is a joke of a company. Think about this, Dr. M has been CEO for four-plus years, and he has taken Supg stock from $14.00/share to a dismal $2.37/share, yet he still gives himself $300K year-end performance bonuses (he is also Chairman of the Board). I need help understanding that definition of performance? Supg needs a fresh infusion of blood before it's to late.
“The street thinks this guy is an absolute buffoon, and Supg is a joke of a company.”
You are probably not correct about this. I think what has been happening since August is large players in the market became aware that manure and the bs board were not going to defend the stock so they could grant themselves lots of stock options with extremely low exercise prices. With the end of the uptick rule and a CEO of a company with a great future wanting the stock price to go down so he can enrich himself, these large investors determined they could drive the price down very easily to amass huge positions for ridiculously low sums of money. Too bad for the shareholders who believed what manure was pumping prior to August.
I think some large market participants think Supergen is going to be very successful. They want to accumulate as many shares for as little cost as possible until the news breaks. This loss in pps has most likely been orchestrated by these buyers.
With cash of almost $1.60 a share Dacogen royalties, milestone payments, Climb and the pipeline are currently being valued at 55 to 60 cents a share. Dacogen royalties alone are worth far more than that.
The results of the EORTC trial are putting some of the Dacogen royalties at risk. Dacogen is projected to have xUS sales that are 2 to 3 times greater than US sales. If the EORTC results are insufficient to support a J&J MAA with the EMEA for Dacogen sales in the EU then maybe one and a half years of 1x sales are at risk. As alphaomega8294 has pointed out a few times:
“You really think SUPG/JNJ/EISAI would stop at a flawed EORTC in trying to break into the EU market? I would think worst case they apply for EU approval while initiating a study that would compare Vidaza and Dacogen head-to-head in survival at the rec'd dosages and cycles.”
J&J has probably already designed a trial that would optimize survival results and are ready to submit it to the EMEA for approval if the EORTC results are inadequate.
Dacogen sales have not deteriorated since August as most analysts said was possible because MDS physicians and their patients moved beyond the EORTC treatment methods long ago. Dacogen is succeeding in the clinic where it matters the most.
I believe that MP-470 will be a great success and Supergen will be bought out based on insider information before the clinical trial results are released that demonstrate just how effective MP-470 is.
Basically the pps went way down because a couple of large investors bought almost 20% of the outstanding Supergen shares. I hope they get prosecuted and go to jail if what they did is illegal. It may be occurring again but I think the latest deterioration in pps is probably market over reaction to EORTC results that have the potential to be viewed negatively.
Spice....I do not know about you but I hate to admit I have lost a ton of moneyon SUPG. We have seen that an clean balance sheet that SUPG has has little effect on market valuation. At this point we will lose our shirt on SUPG or make a good profit if MP470 comes along without problems. (In my case I may get to breakeven) If EU failure drives the stock to say $1.75 then I may by 10K additional shares and pray that SUPG has better days. In the meantime sell some $2.50 July calls to protect your position a bit. Good luck.