At this point, I think that at least a small failure is baked in the cake. SUPG still will benefit modestly from Dacogen sales and will emphasize it's capital position (cash) and pipeline potential.
One interesting thought on a trial failure. Would this not immediately make S110 and SUPG all the more valuable to Eisai/MGI? I think an offer for the licensing rights (if not an all out takeover) will be vital to Eisai to secure the next gen Decitabine.
Regardless of the outcome, I expect longer term (6-12 month) gains from SUPG.
They are a garbage company but something is up because they have almost doubled in 6/8 weeks. They have have about $300M in NOL carryforward that may be worth something to a aquiring firm I think. Its stunning they are at 2.86 and SUPG is at 2.09.
BTW is failure on EORTC less than 24 months survival rate?
The problem with eisai wanting S110, they paid a huge premium for MGI, which comes with some baggage, the 265M it owes the last drug they received license agreement on. 2010 they need to buyout that company. Alos, eisai has lost about 25% valuation since they entered this deal, which was not viewed by investors with the same beliefs management had with the deal. S110 needs to get in trials with actual patients and see what develops there. I would like to see them take direct aim at Revimid(celg) other mild mds drug. You have a large market in multiple myeloma and if SUPG allows this drug to partner early, I believe we will all be heavily criticizing this company 3 years from now, on what they left on the table. Eisai hands are tied on any deals in the near future.