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Astex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • jigarshah3975 jigarshah3975 Jun 16, 2008 12:44 PM Flag

    OPINION FROM A BIOTECH INVESTOR NEWSLETTER

    A reader asked about SuperGen (SUPG)—even though it is dirt cheap and they are getting royalties on Dacogen I wouldn’t be a buyer before survival data in MDS. Vidaza comes off patent in a few years which will limit the upside and S-110 SuperGen’s next-generation pro-drug of Dacogen is still very early.

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    • I understand rory, your now an expert on homes in Florida. Then produce one headline or report on how values have fallen like you stated. Will wait for hell to freeze over before you actually do any research. How does Vegas revenues influence Florida housing???

    • In fact one foreclosed home I looked

      1 doesn't make it for me. Florida has more foreclosures compared to any other states in the U.S.A.. Las Vegas has the 2nd most foreclosurse, in fact last month alone Las Vegas has its revenue decreased by 1 billion dollars according to casinos.

    • "It all depends were you live. If you live in Florida or Las Vegas, many homes have now gone south. You can buy the same home that was worth 300k to 400k about 2-1/2 years ago for 160k to 210k."

      Prices have not fallen like you state rory. I live in Florida and have seen a reluctant market gradually moving the asking prices down, but not as you have outlined here. In fact one foreclosed home I looked at, in 2005 sold in april for 210,000 and 3 weeks later for 329K, the bank is looking for 259K for it. I estimate right now the high prices have fallen maybe 25%, not the 48% that you have outlined.

    • With the falling real estate prices I could probably afford two houses with my current SUPG stake.

      It all depends were you live. If you live in Florida or Las Vegas, many homes have now gone south. You can buy the same home that was worth 300k to 400k about 2-1/2 years ago for 160k to 210k. I guess you had to average down on your supg investments. Lucky you had the cash to do that wouldn't you say.

    • With my ORIGINAL SUPG stake. Not at current levels.

    • With the falling real estate prices I could probably afford two houses with my current SUPG stake.

    • F8, may not have been you has much as the 2.50 to $1.98 decline on NO news that made me a believer...

      If the market can move this weakling like that on nothing, I'm thinking they'll destroy it on bad news. I don't think JNJ/EISAI will let there be "bad" news though, only "gray" news. Heck, I'm almost expecting the initial PR saying that the cycles show a statistically significant survival, with 0 details, only to show all the data at ASH when it won't mean as much since there will be so much more going on w/ the pipeline and EU approval.

      That said, I'm probably an inverse indicator, so feel free to mortgage your house on SUPG at these levels. ;)

    • Alph,

      So I swung you over to my side of the fence on failure being "baked in"? I hope we need not find out what "failure" does.

    • Alpha,

      $1 (failed) and $4 (good result) are exactly the numbers in my mind too!

      Look at ACAD. The stock dropped from $17 to $8s in last several months. I thought the failed study had built into the price already. Nope! it falled almost another 50% today!

      Remember that the failed trial is a phase II, and ACP-104 is not nearly important to Acadia as Dacogen to Supergen. Pimavanserin is ACAD's top drug candidate. It's a $ billion potential drug. ACAD is in process of partnership negotiation. Even with this potential, a minor phase II cut the value half.

      I expect the price will fall below $1 in trading if EORTC is not statistic significant.

    • Agreed, anything is possible in the markets (especially with illiquid micro-cap biotechs).

      I think the takeaway from this is to always keep some dry powder to capitalize on the temporary irrationality.

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