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Astex Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

  • alphaomega8294 alphaomega8294 Jun 20, 2008 7:18 AM Flag

    R&R OncInc Data for May 2008

    From an R&R note posted on 6/19... R&R's actually saying that Revlimid is now higher in total market share than Dacogen, which would be surprising if true. As always, no link. And as always, take this figures with a grain of salt... (They even admit their figures were off a whopping 18% for Vidaza)

    >>Within MDS, Revlimid was essentially flat in terms of patient numbers while market share increased to
    27.4%. The drug continues to dominate the 5Q minus population where market share is approximately 80%.
    Celgene’s Vidaza recovered the decline in patient numbers observed last month and appears to have found
    a consistent market share of approximately 44.5%. SuperGen’s (SUPG, Market Perform) Dacogen
    recovered some of the patients lost last month; however market share has now crossed below 25% to
    23.8%. Within the non-5Q minus cytogentic abnormality population, in low and intermediate 1 risk patients
    Vidaza holds a market share of approximately 50%, compared to the 23% share held by Dacogen. Vidaza
    also holds a market share of approximately 50% in intermediate 2 and high risk patients, while Dacogen
    holds a market share of 31%. According to our proprietary forecasting tool (see page 8), Vidaza is tracking
    to 2Q08 sales of $38MM, well below our estimate of $52MM and the Street consensus of $48MM. We would
    note that in 1Q08 our forecast based on two months data underestimated actual Vidaza sales by 18%.
    Furthermore, our IMS sales-based forecast is currently projecting 2Q08 sales of $43MM from one month of
    data in 2Q08.<<

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