Latest IMS figure and trends on Vidaza. I have been trading CELG lately and figure they're the better play right now of the two drugs. Specially with EU approval for vidaza.
Here's the latest update:
Celgene: MDS Market Update: Vidaza Share Still Growing; Market Growth Remains Ahead of Expectations Overweight
November monthly sales were released by IMS this morning, and we are publishing our ongoing analysis of MDS market trends. This proprietary analysis follows MDS trends by deriving monthly patients treated from sales data to determine market share and total patient growth for the hypomethylating agents Vidaza and Dacogen (see page 2 for details). November sales data show that market share for Celgene’s Vidaza continues to increase over Eisai’s Dacogen, where share is now 58/42 Vidaza/Dacogen, from 53/47 one year ago. The market continues to show robust growth, increasing 20% y/y, implying upside to our 4% 2008 patient growth estimate. For a working copy of the underlying spreadsheet, please contact the team.
Market Share. Vidaza’s share of the MDS Market treated by hypomethylating agents is now 58%, up from 55% one month ago and 53% one year ago. Importantly, the negative data from EORTC trial of Dacogen were presented in December, and hence the impact of the full data presentation has not yet been seen. We expect continued Vidaza share growth going forward following the revised Vidaza label, which now includes Vidaza’s compelling survival advantage, and the full EORTC data at ASH. Total Patient Growth. Total patients treated by hypomethylating agents increased 20% year over year and 7% quarter over quarter. Throughout 2008, total patients have increased by an average of 16% year over year and by an average of 5% quarter over quarter.
Implications on our estimates. Our MDS model assumes average 2008 Vidaza share of 60%, and with year-to-date share averaging 54% and treated patient growth that has been well ahead of expectations, we are comfortable 2008 sales will meet or exceed our estimate. Furthermore, our MDS model assumes only 5% year-over-year patient growth in 2009, and 16% average growth YTD in 2008 could imply upside to our estimates if trends are sustained.
Maintaining Overweight rating. Our target is based on a multiple of 38x our 2009 EPS estimate of $2.25. Our P/E is at a slight discount to a ratio of Celgene's above average 2008-12E EPS CAGR relative to peers (32% vs. 14%) given modest lack of visibility on Revlimid growth in 2009.
In the absence of meaningfull news think the stock has a chance to move at the end of 2009 in advance of 2010 AML trial results. However hoping there is some news in form of a partnership and or more news on MP 470 Maybe there is no insider buying because they are blacked out due to partnership discussions. One can hope.
Thanks for the update. I still like the 40+ % for Dacogen. I wonder if vidaza's increase in market share is based upon EU sales? Do you have the market share for US only? Good to see the market is increasing-hope that is total patient population. We now know increased survival is due to the number of cycles. Could this be the cause of increased market?
Dacogen has some advantage with cost at the top of the list. What do you think? I still like Supergen long term given Dacogen revenues pay for ongoing trials until partners come onboard.
I'm disappointed that sgi-1776 has not enter trials as Dr. Manuso gave guidance. The dacogen market of 40% would be positive news and give SUPG the needed funding to get a drug to phase 2 or 3. If dacogen can continue to see 40M+ quarterly sales, I see SUPG share price staying around the $2 level for most of 2009. We would need some kind of partnership to move higher, since Dacogen will not gain any traction any time soon. I have been buying CELG around the $48 level and selling it in the $53 area. Done it twice now.
The number of posts have declined, believe most longs are praying for something to hang their hats on. We have a nice potential here, but I think 2 years before anything of substance.