Run up to over $2.00 and our drop back down below $1.90 - Could it be related to J&J's purchase of Couger announced today. J&J partners Dacogen ex US. Perhaps the run up was anticipation of J&J purchase and run down is reaction to fact that it's Couger not us.
It's interesting that J&J would spend close to a billion to acquire a company with a phase 3 oncology drug but shows no interst in SUPG with its phase 1- 1b pipeline.
Could it be that Manuso's fundamental strategy of filling (actually trying to fill) the pipeline with Phase 1 and 2 drug canditates, and never risking phase 3 without a partner, is a strategy that cannot pay off? The only products Manuso has been able to monitize (ie. sell)are ones that were in phase 3 on the company nickle.
What is astonishing is that senior management of this company learns nothing from its successes (selling Dacogen in phase 3)let alone anything from its failures (selling or partnering any early phase 1 or phase 2 products.)
Maybe that's why the CEO signed a compensation contract that doubled his cash salary next year to $650K plus bonus - he knows there is no stock price payoff next year from a partnership. The fact that he buys 2000 shares a year sends me a message that the stock is not under valued in this market.
I also withheld my votes for Dr. Manuso. Not that I think he's done a bad job, but more of a message that he needs to create some value. More of us need to send him a message on our proxy, that he's creating nothing for investors the past few years, but asking for double the bonus.
The recent price move, probably relates to Eisai not giving any guidance for 2009 on Dacogen sales. Management hasn't really shown us anything new about the pipeline in a while and Mp-470 reformulation is a curb we didn't need to go around. The only two things I believe are still positives are SGI-1776 is in the clinics with actual patients and they had a lot of faith in this drug. The second positive is someone close to the discovery is holding 400K shares.
The Dacogen annuity uncertainity continues. Eisai seems to be straight forward to their investors and did point to continued double digit growth. 40 trials are on going on that drug, so they must have some faith in a aml ,adopt, and mainteance applications. Supg just needs maybe 200M a year in dacogen sales to keep the burn at near zero.
Mp-470 took on some of the worst of the worst cases and showed promise. If they can just raise the efficacy some, this maybe the near term surprise we all crave. I'm disappointed that Dacogen is right back to where it was a while ago, with a cloudy picture, but that's what happens when you're second fiddle. But we know the drug works and that can mean they can shown additional benefits by combining or additional label uses. I would not be surprised if we see it trade near 1.50 again. But on the flip side, Mp-470 and sgi-1776 can generate some buzz.
"The only two things I believe are still positives are SGI-1776 is in the clinics with actual patients and they had a lot of faith in this drug."
Do we know this as a fact? Their website still shows SGI-1776 as preclinical. Of course it wouldn't surprise me if they don't keep their website updated!!
Also JNJ selling Dacogen in many OUS markets with increasing sales.
Eiasi did give Dacogen guidance at the beginning of their fiscal year. They did not update or reaffirm.
Dacogen is a small contributor to their overall sales.
They made progress to getting approval for the increased dosing for Dacogen. Not sure if Doctors are using more Dacogen cycles any way.
Eiasi is more likely to purchase Supergen. With the dollar continuing to weaken versus the Yen, a Supergen buy is looking a lot cheaper.
Additionally MGI purchased 4 mil shares at $10 dollars.
Additionally Dacogen sales and market share increase.
Time will tell.
I think Wisc. saw an opportunity to get into GE with the dividend and took the opportunity.