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Astex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

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  • billyteex1 billyteex1 Oct 26, 2009 8:42 PM Flag

    I liked this conference call

    Jelly,

    Another point I liked about the call was that of the 375M from GSK, 65% earned on milestones and 35% on approval of a compound. This was mentioned in the Q&A. First updates on Sgi 1776 will be discussed at AARCNCI in Nov and at ASH in Dec. Just glad that we could see maybe 10M-30M maybe a year for the next few years. The montigen buyout now looking like it may repay us back 9X(paid 40M and maybe see 375M).

    Mp-470 completed Pk for new formulation. SGI1776 no adverse events in increasing dosages. Ph1 in aml to begin soon fo this drug.

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    • <<Another point I liked about the call was that of the 375M from GSK, 65% earned on milestones and 35% on approval of a compound.>>

      Billy, I do think that is significant, but these days, any list of any significance only has 9 entries, not 10. (Why do you think Letterman has the Top 9 lists?) - LOL

      Seriously, 35% of 375 million can be a lot of money ($131 million?). But it really depends on a lot of other things going right. It is perhaps the most intangeable item of the deal. It depends on 2 compounds getting approvals, and we should not count that money yet.

      Let's value this company realistically, not ideally. That way, when they underperform, we won't be disappointed. And when they outperform, we will have something to sell.

      • 1 Reply to jelly1126
      • Jelly,

        "Seriously, 35% of 375 million can be a lot of money ($131 million?). But it really depends on a lot of other things going right. It is perhaps the most intangeable item of the deal. It depends on 2 compounds getting approvals, and we should not count that money yet"

        I believe you missed my point completely. The 65% or 244M is attainable and some in the short period, meaning 2010. Dr. Manuso stated these words "advance previous arranged target", so they may already identified what GSK wants Climb to aim at. Now here's why the question by the analyst was important and why 65% is loaded earlier than later. Such milestones as identifying the lead compound, ph1, ph2 and ph3 all have milestones tied to them. I'm sure the higher values come with greater advancements and hitting targets. But the greater majority is not waiting on FDA approval for SUPG to receive it. I was surprised to see 65% would be earned prior to any approval, as long as they reached certain met goals. As investors we want to see additional milestones reached in this deal and prevent any additional burn and couple that with any new advances and revenues with Dacogen, would be very welcomed. IMHO.

 
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