hello ian, cjr from the other boards here....
the gsk deal is for $500mil + imo...over the next 5 years...
average $100mil per year (usually strating in year 2 and building...unless there is a suprise..
then, who knows what?
Gaining 12.69% this morning is SuperGen Inc., (SUPG) http://www.supergen.com/ currently trading in the $2.90 range. SUPG has a 3-Month average daily trading volume of 240,231 shares and it easily topped that this morning in the first two hours of the session. At its current price, SUPG is only 40 cents off its 52-week high of $3.30 set on 09-18-09 with trailing twelve month revenues of $41 million. SUPG has a 3-Month $2.40 floor with some support at $2.60 as the new floor and spikes into the $3 range for a possible new threshold beneath its 52-week high. SUPG is a Pure Momentum Play for me in the near-term. SUPG isn't overly held by insiders or institutions and there are plenty of shares in the public float. SUPG management is constantly on the road to talk with investors and investing groups and I always find an aggressive management team on the road in lieu of any hard, material news a good 'Buy' signal at its current price.
In late October, SUPG had total Q3 2009 revenues of $10.4 million up a little y-o-y and the stock made a penny a share in the quarter for investors. SUPG generates some revenues from its royalty licenses for its cancer-drug Dacogen. The Big News in October (which I believe is still driving the stock) was a multi-year collaboration deal with drug-giant GlaxoSmithKline to discover and develop cancer therapeutics for GSK to commercialize. Total potential development and commercialization milestones payable to SUPG could exceed $375 million.
SUPG also has an approved product, Mitozytrex for the treatment of solid tumors and more than a half-dozen Phase II and Phase III treatments in its pipeline.
<<dont think it would move like this on intial milestone payment which is likely small anyway>>
I actually expect a move like this on an initial payment. Of the $375M which the deal could be worth, an initial payment is likely to be small (perhaps $5M) but it would show that the milestones are reachable.
Also, $5M would make the company profitable for the year.
<<My wild a// guess is great results on AML trial soon to be announced>>
That's very possible too, but how much can that be worth in terms of increased sales? Can it double the annual sales? If so, it could be worth 12 to 15 million annually.
The GSK deal should be worth much more than that on an annualized basis over the next 5 years.
INESTOR 551 doesnt know and neither do I. i just love it when my stocks go up big on huge volume and retail investors like me have no idea why . It means the SMART money knows something and I LOVE to be with smart money