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Astex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

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  • batzem batzem Dec 14, 2009 1:06 PM Flag

    Psst!

    My wild a// guess is great results on AML trial soon to be announced .dont think it would move like this on intial milestone payment which is likely small anyway and cant think of anything else

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    • <<dont think it would move like this on intial milestone payment which is likely small anyway>>

      I actually expect a move like this on an initial payment. Of the $375M which the deal could be worth, an initial payment is likely to be small (perhaps $5M) but it would show that the milestones are reachable.

      Also, $5M would make the company profitable for the year.

      <<My wild a// guess is great results on AML trial soon to be announced>>

      That's very possible too, but how much can that be worth in terms of increased sales? Can it double the annual sales? If so, it could be worth 12 to 15 million annually.

      The GSK deal should be worth much more than that on an annualized basis over the next 5 years.

      • 2 Replies to jelly1126
      • JellY if it doubles the annual sales of DACOGEN its worth a lot more thn 12= 15 mill .. It means 40 mil plus which if everything else stayed static, which it wont , earningS somewher around 50 cents a share and with a consevative 10 multiple make the stock 5 dollars . I think 8 or 9 more likely. A positive result in AML will in my opinion not only open up a new label indication but more importantly restore the luster DACOGEN lost to VIDAZA and make a EU filing possible which will further expand sales. Of course it could be something completely different but these are the kind of surprises I like. Im sure roryrae knows.

      • its good news 2 come

 
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